Environment & Energy
Related: About this forumThe Guardian: China's CO2 emissions have peaked or will in 2025, say 44% of experts in survey
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/nov/27/chinas-co2-emissions-have-peaked-or-will-in-2025-say-44-of-experts-in-surveyResearch reflects rising optimism about countrys green transition as it takes leading position on climate action
Amy Hawkins
Tue 26 Nov 2024 19.01 EST
Nearly half of experts surveyed by a climate thinktank believe Chinas carbon dioxide emissions have already peaked, or will do so in 2025, reflecting increasing optimism about the countrys green transition at a time when it is being called on to take a leading position on global climate action.
According to a report published on Tuesday by the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA), a research organisation, 44% of climate experts from academia and industry believe that Chinas CO2 emissions will peak, at the latest, in 2025. In last years survey, only 21% of experts gave the same response.
There is also more optimism about China reducing its reliance on coal. Asked if they believed that its coal consumption had already peaked, 36% of experts said yes, up from 20% last year.
Chinas official targets are to reach peak carbon emissions by 2030 and to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060. Beijing has also pledged to strictly control the use of coal during the 14th five-year plan, which covers the period until the end of 2025.
NNadir
(34,841 posts)OKIsItJustMe
(21,016 posts)Which, for a scientist, I find hard to believe.
NNadir
(34,841 posts)..."alternate facts."
8+8 is still not greater than 30 when comparing the 8 EJ from solar and the 8 EJ from wind to the 30 EJ from nuclear produced in 2023 worldwide nor are the laws of physics determined by taking a poll.
In order to judge whether another person is responsive to facts, one should appreciate what a fact is. If one cannot do that, one is incompetent to comment on how another person responds to information.
In general, if one is mindlessly parroting journalist tripe - I often joke that one cannot get a degree in journalism if one has passed a college level science course with a grade of C or better (and maybe it's not entirely a joke) - one generally is not, in my opinion, generally equipped to judge what a fact might be.
Since I am a scientist who was once a dumb shit antinuke, and who has changed his mind based on the data from the consequences of Chernobyl compared to the routine operations of dangerous fossil fuel plants, I feel quite secure in judging what is and is not a fact, particularly when hearing from credulous rubes still whining after 46 years and change about Three Mile Island.
There is nothing quite as appalling as the abuse of the word "peak" by antinukes in any case. If in "percent talk" China produces 75% as much carbon dioxide waste in 2030 as it produced in 2024, it is still going to impact the planet in a huge way. I note that China is one of the main users of coal to make hydrogen that all of the hydrogen idiots around here like to pretend is "green."
The laws of physics, in particular the laws of thermodynamics, are not changed by wishful thinking or by branding, anymore than they are changed by polling.
Have a nice Thankgiving holiday. Hopefully the Turkey will come out nice in the solar powered oven assuming there is no snow or rain.
OKIsItJustMe
(21,016 posts)Dont feel too bad. Most humans do.
However, try to accept new facts that do not fit your preconceived notions.
NNadir
(34,841 posts)...here the facts, as represented by something called "numbers" what the concentrations of the dangerous fossil fuel waste carbon dioxide are and how fast they are rising, by an unprecedented amount in 2024, which, if one can read, is um, NOW.
For example, I have posted several times the numbers recorded at the Mauna Loa Carbon Dioxide observatory, something I do fairly regularly.
Update on the Disastrous 2024 CO2 Data Recorded at Mauna Loa
I feel entirely confident that in contrast to credulous rubes spouting happy talk about hydrogen and batteries and so called "renewable energy," the numbers tell a story - at least to anyone who can think and read - about how realistic this happy talk actually is.
The link in that post to the Mauna Loa CO2 Observatory is available to anyone who gives a shit, and since I give a shit, I have been monitoring for decades. Even credulous rubes can access it. The data pages are still freely available and assuming that one has not joined Greenpeace and knows how to do simple mathematical operations at a 7th grade level, one can find out how rapidly the deterioration of the atmosphere is accelerating.
Of the top 20 highest increases in CO2 over ten years previous measured at Mauna, all but two took place in 2024. The two that didn't occurred in 2021. So much for the "energy transition" all of our credulous cheerleaders here hype.
Let me guess, "new facts" invalidate this data, no?
It seems likely that the Observatory will be shut with the NOAA, under the nutcases about to take positions in the Government, so it is likely that credulous rubes will be in the happy situation (for them, not humanity) of continuing to issue disingenuous tripe about how everything is just peachy keen because of um, let me see, oh I know, "new facts."
The spirit of Kelly Ann Conway is alive and well here at DU, this in the time of the celebration of the lie.
The fucking planet's on fire, despite all the happy hydrogen/battery talk that satisfies those people who have never, clearly, taken even a high school level course involving the laws of thermodynamics.
Have a wonderful Thanksgiving.
OKIsItJustMe
(21,016 posts)On one hand, you cite EIA as authoritative (believing the facts you draw from them support your conclusion) and then you denigrate their facts, when they dont. You dont get to have it both ways.
At least not in science my friend.
NNadir
(34,841 posts)It doesn't go over all that well with people who can't think clearly, no matter how much effort one puts into the effort; all such effort being as much of a waste of time as, say, spending trillions of dollars on a reactionary effort to return the world's energy supplies to dependence on the weather, at precisely the time these reactionaries have worked to destabilize the weather by their studied indifference to fossil fuels.
Still we persist.
Still, it's amusing on some level, if one can be amused by the destruction of the planet, as clearly indicated by the numbers in my previous post.
A credulous rube looks at soothsaying and considers them to be "facts."
For example, I frequently post this graphic, which is a nice summary of the 2024 EIA WEO, similar to the tables in all of the IEA WEO's of the 21st century, all of which I have in my files:
IEA World Energy Outlook 2024
Table A.1a: World energy supply Page 296.
Now, as an educated and well read person, as someone who has lived a long time, through lots of by 1990, by 2000, by 2010, by 2020, and now by 2030, by 2040, by 2050, or as the ethically withered morons at Greenpeace would have it, by 2100, soothsaying about the outbreak of a so called "renewable energy" nirvana.
It's not like I didn't suffer through the senile rhetoric of the extremely ignorant antinuke Harvey Wasserman, who predicted a Solartopia "by 2030," just six years from now in the early part of this century. (2006).
All of these airheads, this celebrants of wishful thinking, confuse soothsaying with reality.
Now, if one is literate, one is capable of making a distinction between reality and soothsaying (with healthy dollops of wishful thinking), something which is clearly troublesome for some people. All of the entries to the right of the column headed "2023" in the tables above are soothsaying, a la Harvey Wasserman, dumb shit antinuke. They should not be confused with facts. Incredibly, however, we see people, disingenuous poorly read credulous rubes who do actively embrace such confusion.
We can prevent the outcome posited by soothsaying by acting. If in 2050, as predicted in the soothsaying column of the table above, nuclear energy is only producing 49 Exajoules, and dangerous coal is still producing 94 Exajoules, dangerous natural gas 152 Exajoules, and Oil, 176 Exajoules, the planet is fucked. To me, but apparently not to the withered brains who think tearing the shit out of the Earth's remaining wilderness to get to 84 Exajoules of Solar Energy "by 2050" might be a good idea, it's pretty clear it won't happen, not because we will overcome antinuke ignorance, superstition and irrational "Robert F. Kennedy Jr." type fear, but because civilization will collapse from extreme global heating.
Have a wonderful Thanksgiving day, perhaps, with a solar powered oven. It wouldn't do to well here in NJ, where after an intense drought induced by global heating, I'm sure, we finally have some rain, and the clouds will make solar dependent ovens - should there actually be some - pretty ineffective.
OKIsItJustMe
(21,016 posts)By Reuters
November 27, 2024 11:49 AM EST
Summary
- China CO2 emissions on course to rise 0.4% in 2024
- China falling further behind on 2025 carbon intensity target
- New climate targets to be submitted to U.N. before February
China wants to cut the amount of CO2 it produces per unit of economic growth by 18% over the 2021-2025 period, but it fell further behind this year as a result of rising energy demand, said the Helsinki-based Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA) in its annual assessment.
China needs to cut emissions by 6% over 2024-2025 to catch up, but they are expected to inch up by a further 0.4% in 2024, according to CREA calculations, and radical measures will be required to meet the target next year.
Progress has been made in curbing new steel and coal-fired power capacity, and a rapid decline in cement production has also slowed emissions growth, but CO2 from a rapidly expanding coal-to-chemicals industry increased 12.5% this year, CREA said.
OKIsItJustMe
(21,016 posts)By Gavin Maguire
November 27, 2024 11:48 AM EST
LITTLETON, Colorado, Nov 27 (Reuters) - China's power firms are on track to cut coal's share of annual electricity generation to below 60% for the first time in 2024, which would mark a major milestone in the country's efforts to transition energy production away from fossil fuels.
Reduced coal reliance by the world's second-largest economy is a rare bright spot this year for climate trackers, who were disappointed by the recent COP29 meetings and are bracing for the United States' withdrawal from the Paris Accord next year.
And given that China's absolute levels of coal-fired generation are at record highs and still rising, the decline in coal's share of China's power mix might appear insignificant.
China raises coal-fired output, but cuts coal's share in electricity generation mix
But as China accounts for roughly 40% of all power emissions from fossil fuels, sustained reductions to coal's use in Chinese power production are critical if worldwide pollution trends are to be reversed.