Maps of the tropics showing the annual maximum wet-bulb temperatures predicted by the authors for the upcoming summer, taking into account current El Niño conditions and global warming (top) and the incremental effect due to El Niño alone (bottom). The reddest areas are predicted to have the highest wet bulb temperatures — a measure of the combined effects of humidity and temperature. The black boxes outline regions that were analyzed in more detail. Credit: Yi Zhang, UC Berkeley
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A new statistical analysis of the interaction between El Niño and rising global temperatures due to climate change concludes that the approaching summer in the tropics has nearly a 7 in 10 chance of breaking records for temperature and humidity.

The prediction, by climate scientists at the University of California, Berkeley, applies to a broad swath of the world straddling the equator, including India and the bulk of Africa, Central and South America and Australia, but also includes Florida and Texas.

Long-term predictions like this can help regions prepare for extreme heat events and protect humans, livestock and crops, said William Boos, a UC Berkeley professor of earth and planetary science and an author of the study, which was led by UC Berkeley Miller Postdoctoral Fellow Yi Zhang.

"Humanitarian aid and outreach, preparation for medical care and advising and distribution of crops and agricultural equipment can all be adjusted in ways that can account for that prediction," Boos said.

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