2/5 - Nearly A Foot Of Rain In 24 Hours At UCLA Station; Warming Bodes Worse For Future CA Storms

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Link to tweet

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Daniel Swain on X:

I wanted to reiterate some recent findings from our own research specifically addressing extreme #AtmosphericRiver storms in a warming climate. 1) CA will more extreme ARs in a warming climate, mainly (~80%) due water vapor increases. Extreme CA ARs in a warming climate will not only be more intense, but they may also have preferentially more southerly (deep subtropical) origins (like present one!).

Integrated vapor transport, a measure of AR intensity, may increase at a “super Clausius-Clapeyron” rate (>>7%/C), especially over Southern California!

Additionally, we also find that the most intense hourly rainfall *rates* within such extreme ARs will likely increase much faster than total precip accumulations–perhaps twice as fast! This is very important for flash flood/debris flow risk

As part of #ARkStorm 2.0 scenario research, we did find that climate change is dramatically raising the risk of a severe multi-week storm sequence capable of causing widespread, catastrophic floods (and has already doubled the odds!) But, importantly, ARkStorm scenarios involve *much longer, more severe, and more widespread storm sequence than is currently occurring.* Good news? Feb 2024 isn’t an ARK2-like scenario. Bad news? A real such occurrence would be much worse.

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https://thinc.blog/2024/02/05/fears-in-the-rain-as-la-finally-catches-up-with-blade-runner/#more-95095