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Inflation and retail sales data greet a roaring stock market rally: What to know this week

Josh Schafer
Updated Mon, November 11, 2024 at 6:04 AM EST
7 min read

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The first data the Fed will consider ahead of its next meeting will come out on Wednesday with the release of the October Consumer Price Index (CPI). Wall Street economists expect headline inflation rose just 2.6% annually in October, an increase from the 2.4% rise in September. Prices are set to rise 0.2% on a month-over-month basis, per economist projections, in line with the increase seen in September.

On a "core" basis, which strips out food and energy prices, CPI is forecast to have risen 3.3% over last year in October, unchanged from September's increase. Monthly core price increases are expected to clock in at 0.3%, also in line with the September gain.

"The October CPI report will likely support the notion that the last mile of inflation's journey back to target will be the hardest," Wells Fargo's economics team led by Jay Bryson wrote in a weekly note to clients on Friday.

Retail reading

The final monthly retail sales report before the start of the holiday shopping season is set for release on Thursday. Economists estimate retail sales increased 0.3% over the prior month during October. The control group of retail sales — which excludes several volatile categories like gasoline and feeds directly into gross domestic product (GDP) — is also expected to have risen by 0.3%.

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