Economy

BootinUp

(49,169 posts) Thu Jun 13, 2024, 09:03 AM Jun 2024

Core Inflation excluding rent has been around 2% for eight months

And rent numbers lag by a year.

But the Fed — burned by its failure to foresee the inflation spike of 2021 and 2022 — isn’t ready to say that yet. Its economic projections, mostly made before Wednesday morning’s numbers, show only gradual progress against inflation. Of course, it didn’t cut rates (nobody thought it would), and its statement about that decision was only slightly more dovish than the last one.

The rest of us, however, don’t have to be that cautious. Inflation has basically been defeated, and interest rates will be coming down — not now, and maybe not at the next meeting, but soon and for the rest of this year and much of next.

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2024/06/12/opinion/thepoint/inflation-over-federal-reserve?smid=url-share

2 replies

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Core Inflation excluding rent has been around 2% for eight months (Original Post) BootinUp Jun 2024 OP

The FED governors are the smartest economic minds in the room?? Let me think about that.... NoMoreRepugs Jun 2024 #1

I found the BLS data series so one can look at the numbers and graphs in many formats and ranges progree Jun 2024 #2

NoMoreRepugs

(10,646 posts)

1. The FED governors are the smartest economic minds in the room?? Let me think about that....

Reply to BootinUp (Original post)

Thu Jun 13, 2024, 09:24 AM

Jun 2024

Nah…..

progree

(11,463 posts)

2. I found the BLS data series so one can look at the numbers and graphs in many formats and ranges

Reply to BootinUp (Original post)

Thu Jun 13, 2024, 02:07 PM

Jun 2024

Edited to add: OP's article, viewable archive.is version: https://archive.is/Hs8r1 End Edit

CPI-U All Items less food, energy, and shelter, seaonally adjusted:
https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUSR0000SA0L12E

To see more than the index values, Click on "More Formatting Options" on the upper right

On the page that appears, click on some of these checkboxes as one pleases (no harm checking on them all, it all ends up in one page, one after the other)
1-Month Percent Change
2-Month Percent Change
3-Month Percent Change
6-Month Percent Change
12-Month Percent Change

Set the "Specify Year Range" from 2023 to 2024 to match the OP's graphs

From reading many articles, I do know that the Fed follows this (core ex shelter) with a lot of interest (and/or perhaps a similarly named core ex-shelter series), so they aren't a bunch of ring-ring-ring-a-ding-dongs who aren't aware that rents lag in the CPI and PCE.

That said, I've been reading since September of 2022, yes, 1 3/4 years ago, -- and many times since -- that new leases are averaging less than the previous leases, and that this will put downward pressure on the CPI and especially the core CPI over the next several months (meaning the next several months since the article was written, many months or more than a year ago).

But it hasn't happened yet. Shelter in the last 7 months has been coming in at a nearly steady 0.4% increase per month, month after month, excepting an excursion to 0.6% in January. The latest year-over-year number is 5.4%. Shelter is one of those "factor X's" that I keep in mind that may finally show up as a CPI-reducing item, but it hasn't yet for whatever reason.

Shelter: https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUSR0000SAH1

CPI news release: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm

Thanks much for the graphs and the topic.

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