Economy

usonian

(25,715 posts) Sun Apr 12, 2026, 06:28 PM 17 hrs ago

Is the "AI Boom" already over? Tech Valuations Back to Pre-AI Boom Levels

Last edited Sun Apr 12, 2026, 11:29 PM - Edit history (2)

Check this out.

https://www.apollo.com/wealth/the-daily-spark/tech-valuations-back-to-pre-ai-boom-levels

The chart below compares the forward P/E ratios for the S&P 500 and the S&P 500 Information Technology sector.

Tech valuations have compressed from 40x to 20x, and we are back at levels last seen before the AI boom began.

That is all!

Higher resolution PDF (136Kb) of that chart:

https://www.apollo.com/content/dam/apolloaem/pdf/daily-spark/2026/apr/11/dailyspark-2026-04-11-1775830796.pdf

Edit to add: I see a lot of projects on github that are essentially LLM's on home hardware (especially Apple Silicon). I suspect that the "downsizing" of simpler tasks and the innovations coming out of China that are more efficient, will drive some of the mania down. Just how much? Will there be a "winner take all" in the enterprise space? Are there too many competitors all trying to create vertical moats? If so, what's their real value outside of their core business? Who knows?

Companies like Microsoft and Google are savaging their core business in order to become THE AI COMPANY (and yikes, nothing else!)

SECOND EDIT:

PocketLLM
https://github.com/vraj00222/pocketllm
Your AI lives on a USB stick. Plug in. Chat locally. Unplug. Zero footprint.

No install. No cloud. No SSD space wasted. One command: ./launch.sh

PocketLLM is a portable USB toolkit for running local LLMs. It bundles everything — the Ollama runtime, model weights, a chat UI, and conversation history — on a single USB drive. Plug it into any Mac or Linux machine, run one command, and you have a fully working local AI. No install required on the host. On unplug, nothing remains.

Inference speed from USB = SSD. After the one-time model load, we benchmarked 54 tokens/sec on both. See benchmarks.

For non-enterprise tasks, AI will in the near future run locally.
All the monster AI companies competing for a handful of enterprise customers (the current US administration diesn't believe in competition, only grift)

8 replies

= new reply since forum marked as read

Highlight:

Is the "AI Boom" already over? Tech Valuations Back to Pre-AI Boom Levels (Original Post) usonian 17 hrs ago OP

There is so much AI there's going to be little else. bucolic_frolic 17 hrs ago #1

All these AI agents are getting aggregated together Shermann 17 hrs ago #2

The Large Language Models are fungible? bucolic_frolic 17 hrs ago #5

Its going to go lower. nt BootinUp 17 hrs ago #3

I don't think it is just the AI boom that is over. I think all sectors will suffer from this President and his war. Midnight Writer 17 hrs ago #4

And for many applications, you don't need a massive data center flying in outer space Bluetus 16 hrs ago #6

i was seeing tulips. pansypoo53219 14 hrs ago #7

Software stocks are some of what's dragging on the tech sector progree 11 hrs ago #8

bucolic_frolic

(55,352 posts)

1. There is so much AI there's going to be little else.

Reply to usonian (Original post)

Sun Apr 12, 2026, 06:36 PM

17 hrs ago

No one knows which AI companies will succeed. Companies are spending hundreds of billions on AI, with uncertain payoff. It has Tech Wreck potential just like 2001. It's a bug of our competitive capitalism. There were more than 600 companies making tractors after WWI, how many survived? Remember all the personal computer companies in the 1990s? Boom and bust.

Shermann

(9,063 posts)

2. All these AI agents are getting aggregated together

Reply to bucolic_frolic (Reply #1)

Sun Apr 12, 2026, 06:51 PM

17 hrs ago

Tools like Cursor let you choose the agent most adept at completing the coding task at hand. So, all these AI companies will get bought up and their technology absorbed.

bucolic_frolic

(55,352 posts)

5. The Large Language Models are fungible?

Reply to Shermann (Reply #2)

Sun Apr 12, 2026, 06:55 PM

17 hrs ago

There are differences in the hardware. Some have faster chips, some faster memory. This is like trying to put a Chevy engine in a Toyota. If none of them are profitable, and have bet the farm on AI, how will they pay for acquisitions? Bankruptcy court sounds plausible.

BootinUp

(51,418 posts)

3. Its going to go lower. nt

Reply to usonian (Original post)

Sun Apr 12, 2026, 06:52 PM

17 hrs ago

Midnight Writer

(25,491 posts)

4. I don't think it is just the AI boom that is over. I think all sectors will suffer from this President and his war.

Reply to usonian (Original post)

Sun Apr 12, 2026, 06:55 PM

17 hrs ago

The businessmen tycoons who run this country don't seem to realize that increasing prices, eliminating jobs, destroying our economic safety nets, and taking away health insurance subsidies kills the Goose That Lays the Golden Eggs for them.

Bluetus

(2,914 posts)

6. And for many applications, you don't need a massive data center flying in outer space

Reply to usonian (Original post)

Sun Apr 12, 2026, 07:25 PM

16 hrs ago

because we can't get enough cooling here on Earth. Many AI apps run just fine on a desktop computer and don't require ANY connection to the cloud.

Yes, there are certain exotic applications that do require that mind-boggling stuff, but that is not the norm, and I guess some people are starting to figure that out now.

For example, here is a list of dozens of FREE open source LLMs you can download today.
https://github.com/eugeneyan/open-llms

pansypoo53219

(23,079 posts)

7. i was seeing tulips.

Reply to usonian (Original post)

Sun Apr 12, 2026, 09:38 PM

14 hrs ago

progree

(13,023 posts)

8. Software stocks are some of what's dragging on the tech sector

Reply to usonian (Original post)

Mon Apr 13, 2026, 01:08 AM

11 hrs ago

Last edited Mon Apr 13, 2026, 01:54 AM - Edit history (1)

Software stocks are experiencing a significant sell-off, with companies like Salesforce (CRM), Adobe (ADBE), Intuit (INTU), and Workday (WDAY) facing intense pressure due to AI agent disruption fears. The "software-mageddon" has severely impacted companies with high subscription models, driven by concerns that AI will replace traditional software workflows and reduce pricing power - Business Insider

The iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF (IGV) is down 30.2% YTD thru April 10
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/IGV/

Past 12 months: -13.7%,
Past 24 months: -8.8%

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