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modrepub

(3,639 posts)
Mon Nov 4, 2024, 07:37 PM Nov 4

Berks County, PA 2024 Election Preview

Just summarizing some past/current vote statistics for tomorrow. Berks County is located in SE PA about 30 miles NW of Philadelphia. Will post results as I can tomorrow night/Wednesday morning.

Thoughts: Berks County voter registration is about even; Rep registration +10k. Pretty sure all county level offices are held by Republicans. I'd say Berks County is lean Republican. Heavy hispanic population in the City of Reading but voter participation in the city is generally less than participation in other parts of the county. I'd say if Trump nets over 20k votes, then he's doing better than he did in 2016 and by default 2020. Biden carried the Commonwealth by 81,660 votes so if Trump gets +5k improvement in votes in Berks County compared to 2020, it would be significant. Pennsylvania will be close and has been trending Republican as far as the voter registration numbers since 2020.


Voter Stats from PA Department of State, Previous Election from Berks County Election Services

2024 Voter Registration (4 Nov 2024):
Total: 276,805
Dem: 108,998
Rep: 118,842
No Affiliation: 37,675
Other: 11,290


2020 POTUS:
Total Registered Voters: 272,192
Total Ballots Cast: 208,010
Voter Turnout: 76.42%
Trump +16,810


2016 POTUS:
Total Ballots Cast: 184,085
Trump: +18,189

4 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
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Berks County, PA 2024 Election Preview (Original Post) modrepub Nov 4 OP
Berks County is like the rest of our fair state Freddie Nov 5 #1
Morning Update modrepub Nov 5 #2
Afternoon Update modrepub Nov 5 #3
Berks County Final Update (and Thoughts) modrepub Nov 8 #4

Freddie

(9,740 posts)
1. Berks County is like the rest of our fair state
Tue Nov 5, 2024, 02:47 AM
Nov 5

There’s the city (Reading) and the rest is Pennsyltucky.
Reading has a very high Hispanic population. Let’s hope they’re pissed off enough by TFG’s recent comments to vote.

modrepub

(3,639 posts)
2. Morning Update
Tue Nov 5, 2024, 10:04 AM
Nov 5

Son is currently waiting in line at our precinct . He has been waiting about 30 minutes.

In 2020, my precinct had about 1,800 cast ballots. Trump +390

modrepub

(3,639 posts)
3. Afternoon Update
Tue Nov 5, 2024, 02:05 PM
Nov 5

Son was in line 2 hours, I was in line 2.5 hours.

In my precinct there were a lot of folks in line with Trump clothing. One person wore a safety vest in reference to the Garbage debacle; folks working in landfills or collecting trash usually wear safety vests and reflective clothing. Also, there were a lot of people who weren't sure of the voting location, and they were wearing Trump stuff. I was number 495 and voted a little after 1 PM. The lady said there were about 1,500 registered voters at my polling site. In 2020, Trump was +390. If I were to hazard a guess, total votes will exceed 1,200 and I expect Trump will win the majority and have at least the same net or maybe more when all is said and done.

Overall, my experience was pretty bad. The longest wait I've ever experienced voting. There were a lot of Trump supporters in the line I stood in and the ones near me didn't appear to have voted in any other recent elections. They seemed pretty motivated and hopeful.

Wife will vote after work. I expect she will have a long wait. Polls close at 8 PM though I expect some places will have people standing in line long after the official close.

modrepub

(3,639 posts)
4. Berks County Final Update (and Thoughts)
Fri Nov 8, 2024, 04:13 AM
Nov 8

2024 POTUS
Total Registered Voters: 276,830
Total Ballots Cast: 209,071
Voter Turnout: 75.52%
Trump: +25,912


My Precinct
Voter Turnout: 78.18%
Trump: +357


Not a pleasant experience; wife, kid and I stood in line +2 hours to vote. Proud most folks showed up despite the wait (and the outcome). County-wide, Trump did better than his previous 2 elections. Same story across most of PA. I think, in the end, pocket book issues were a major factor and voters took it out at the top of the ticket (for the most part). I'm going to assume most of the state representatives were reelected.

A quick look at Reading confirmed what I thought/expected. No support from that area, which is a Democratic stronghold. Outside the City, voter turnout averaged 70-80+%, while most precincts in Reading had 40-50% turnout. This lack of participation in Reading has been going on for decades.

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