Ohio

tmaynardr

(31 posts) Fri Oct 30, 2020, 09:59 AM Oct 2020

Ohio - Cuyahoga County Early Vote Comparison to 2016

There is some really positive news for Ohio if you look at the number of early voting from Democrats and Independents. I have made these charts to visually demonstrate the differences between 2020 and 2016.

Some historical reference is also helpful:

2008 Cuyahoga County
Obama: 458,204
McCain: 199,864
Difference: 258,340

2012
Obama: 447,254
Romney: 190,656
Difference: 256,598

2016:
Clinton: 398,276
Trump: 184,212
Difference: 214,064

As with most elections, democrats do better as the total number of vote increases. Cuyahoga County has 888,873 registered voters. As of this morning, the number of early votes totals 320,175, with the breakdown as follows:

Democratic: 140,388
Independent: 145,055
Republican: 34,488

The question every seems to be asking is why are there so many independent voters? Are they voting to keep things the same? Do they regret not voting in 2016? If there is a large democratic leaning among these independent voters, Ohio will go for Biden. There will also be a lot of down-ballot races that go blue. If Cuyahoga County is a bell-weather for Ohio, then the early voting data is definitely great news for the state of Ohio going blue.

Thoughts?

8 replies

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Ohio - Cuyahoga County Early Vote Comparison to 2016 (Original Post) tmaynardr Oct 2020 OP

under 30yr old voters register as independents beachbumbob Oct 2020 #1

I have no party affiliation nor does my sister but we vote DLCWIdem Oct 2020 #2

Cuyahoga county is Cleveland..heavily democratic and yes the most populous area Thekaspervote Oct 2020 #3

Dayton (Montgomery County) is usually blue... Buckeye_Democrat Oct 2020 #5

Clinton in Ohio tmaynardr Oct 2020 #6

I'm registered as no-party in Ohio, but vote blue. Buckeye_Democrat Oct 2020 #4

In Ohio is those so called Independents that are scary liberal N proud Oct 2020 #7

They are more correctly called "unaffiliated", not independents. No Vested Interest Nov 2020 #8

beachbumbob

(9,263 posts)

1. under 30yr old voters register as independents

Reply to tmaynardr (Original post)

Fri Oct 30, 2020, 10:01 AM

Oct 2020

DLCWIdem

(1,580 posts)

2. I have no party affiliation nor does my sister but we vote

Reply to tmaynardr (Original post)

Fri Oct 30, 2020, 10:08 AM

Oct 2020

BLUE Biden!Harris 2020

Thekaspervote

(34,832 posts)

3. Cuyahoga county is Cleveland..heavily democratic and yes the most populous area

Reply to tmaynardr (Original post)

Fri Oct 30, 2020, 10:23 AM

Oct 2020

The rest of the state minus Cincinnati and Columbus, not so much..sure hope it goes blue!

Buckeye_Democrat

(15,071 posts)

5. Dayton (Montgomery County) is usually blue...

Reply to Thekaspervote (Reply #3)

Fri Oct 30, 2020, 10:35 AM

Oct 2020

... but Trump won it by about 1% last time.

tmaynardr

(31 posts)

6. Clinton in Ohio

Reply to Thekaspervote (Reply #3)

Fri Oct 30, 2020, 11:11 AM

Oct 2020

In 2016, Clinton won only 8 of Ohio's 88 counties. You read that correctly, she lost 80 counties. What really hurt her was the independent voters did not turn out.

Compare to 2020, independent voters are showing up en masse. A conservative estimate in Cuyahoga County is that 65% of independent voters cast a ballot for the democratic candidate. If that % holds true in this election, Cuyahoga County will deliver an additional 50,000-100,000 votes in favor of the democratic candidate. If the other urban areas of the state also have an increase independent turnout, Ohio will turn blue.

Buckeye_Democrat

(15,071 posts)

4. I'm registered as no-party in Ohio, but vote blue.

Reply to tmaynardr (Original post)

Fri Oct 30, 2020, 10:30 AM

Oct 2020

I used to think that I was unusual, but looked at the party affiliations in Montgomery County OH (Dayton) a few weeks ago and learned no-party is by FAR more common here than being registered to a party.

I did it long ago because I didn't want nosey people at workplaces to get an idea of how I vote. It's easy to look up that information online in Ohio.

liberal N proud

(60,978 posts)

7. In Ohio is those so called Independents that are scary

Reply to tmaynardr (Original post)

Fri Oct 30, 2020, 04:33 PM

Oct 2020

It would be good to have a feel for that group.

They are why Ohio is a flip-flop state

No Vested Interest

(5,208 posts)

8. They are more correctly called "unaffiliated", not independents.

Reply to tmaynardr (Original post)

Sun Nov 1, 2020, 01:48 AM

Nov 2020

Last edited Sun Nov 1, 2020, 02:18 AM - Edit history (1)

"Unaffiliated" in Ohio means that they have not voted in a party primary in the last several years. (Perhaps 4yrs, but I'm not positive.)
They may be newly registered voters, or those who just came of voting age, or issue-only voters.

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