What does SF mayoral polling tell us about the race?

San Francisco can be a difficult population to poll, particularly because of its complex ranked-choice voting system and its diverse population. Those who spoke with The Examiner suggested not getting too lost in details and to understand they are only a snapshot in time.

“The way that political campaigns use polls is very different from the way the press does or the average member of the public does,” said David Metz, a pollster with FM3 Research. “Polls are not crystal balls. It is not our attempt to forecast the future.”

But larger trends, particularly those common among several polls, are treated with greater credibility than, for example, who comes out on top after the fourth round of a simulated ranked-choice vote tabulation.

By and large, polls have shown a close three-way race between Breed, Lurie and Farrell finishing within the margins of error; Peskin is generally in fourth place and Safai squarely in fifth.



https://www.sfexaminer.com/news/politics/why-sf-mayoral-candidates-are-spending-big-on-voter-polling/article_09692e96-8011-11ef-8468-13af29f97850.html