Opinion: 6 ways Ukraine's Kursk incursion is changing the tide of war

First, Ukraine’s Kursk incursion is a large-scale military offensive being carried out by Ukraine’s official military, unlike previous infantry raids into Russian territory, which were conducted by smaller, semi-regular units like the Free Russia Legion and the Russian Volunteer Corps, composed of Russian citizens fighting for Ukraine. This distinction is both practically and symbolically significant. Unlike the limited incursions by pro-Ukrainian Russian fighters, this offensive is a major Ukrainian military operation involving a large number of personnel and a wide range of weaponry.

Second, the initial days of the Ukrainian incursion into Russia have been unexpectedly successful for Kyiv. Reports indicate that Ukrainian forces have occupied around 1,000 square kilometers of strategically important Russian territory while sustaining moderate losses in soldiers and equipment. The Ukrainian military also reportedly controls 74 settlements, including the administrative center of Sudzha. Though a small town of about 5,000 citizens, Sudzha was an important logistics hub for the Russian military. In the Tsarist period, it was largely Ukrainian-speaking, and in 1918, it briefly served as the first capital of the emerging Ukrainian Soviet Socialist Republic. Sudzha also hosts a Gazprom metering station, through which all of Russia’s remaining onshore natural gas transportation to the European Union passes. This has caused nervous reactions in European markets, with gas prices rising since Aug. 6, though these fears may be overblown.

Third, the Kursk incursion has led to the largest and quickest change in the war’s front line since Ukraine’s liberation of Russian-controlled territory in Kharkiv and Kherson oblasts in the fall of 2022. Until recently, all territorial gains or losses by either side have been smaller and less significant. For the first time in a long period, the map of the front between Russia and Ukraine looks markedly different.

Fourth, the Kursk incursion can be seen as a belated implementation of the much-discussed Ukrainian counteroffensive that stalled in 2023. A year ago, a Ukrainian retaliatory attack on Ukrainian soil was unsuccessful; now, a more successful attempt is being made on Russian soil. With the Ukrainian troops’ relatively deep incursion into western Russia, the war has somewhat shifted from attrition to maneuver warfare.

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