Core inflation hit an annual rate of 3.3% in April, as expected, Fed's preferred gauge shows
Source: CNBC
Published Thu, May 28 2026 8:32 AM EDT Updated 27 Min Ago
Inflation continued to hit consumer wallets in April, likely keeping the Federal Reserve on the sidelines until the current wave subsides, fresh pricing data released Thursday showed.
The personal consumption expenditures price index increased a seasonally adjusted 0.4% for the month, putting the 12-month inflation rate at 3.8%, the Commerce Department reported. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been looking for respective readings of 0.5% and 3.8%. Excluding food and energy, core prices rose 0.2% for the month and 3.3% for the year, against estimates of 0.3% and 3.3%.
While the annual rates were in line with forecasts, the soft monthly readings could provide some hope that the burst in prices over the previous month had begun to ease. The Fed takes in a wide dashboard of indicators, but uses the PCE measures as its prime forecasting and policy tool. Officials generally consider core a better indicators of long-term inflation trends as it excludes the volatile gas and groceries components.
In other economic news Thursday, gross domestic product growth in the first quarter was less than expected. GDP accelerated at an annualized rate of just 1.6% for the period, according to a revised Commerce Department reading that was below the initial estimate of 2%.
Read more: https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/28/core-inflation-hit-an-annual-rate-of-3point3percent-in-april-as-expected-feds-preferred-gauge-shows-.html
From the source - https://www.bea.gov/news/2026/personal-income-and-outlays-april-2026
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Horizontal red lines drawn at the Fed's 2% target
PCE April month-over-month: +0.4%;; 12 months: 3.8%
CORE PCE: April month-over-month: +0.2%;; 12 months: 3.3%,
5/28/26
SOURCE URLS: 5/28/26 release: https://www.bea.gov/data/income-saving/personal-income
. . . CURRENT RELEASE - https://www.bea.gov/news/2026/personal-income-and-outlays-april-2026
. . . PCE DATA SERIES: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PCEPI
. . . CORE PCE DATA SERIES: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/data/PCEPILFE
Percent increases, seasonally adjusted numbers, ANNUALIZED, over the past month, the past 3 months, and the past 12 months
1 mo 3 mo 12mo
---- ---- ----
4.9% 6.0% 3.8% Regular PCE (includes food & energy)
2.9% 3.8% 3.3% Core PCE (does not have food nor energy
2.0% 2.0% 2.0% Federal Reserve Target
REGULAR "ALL ITEMS" PCE
CORE PCE (Does Not Include Food Nor Energy)
(These are calculated using the actual index values, as are my graphs)
As usual, I prefer to present annualized figures so they can be compared to the Fed's target and to different-length time periods
The CORE PCE is the Federal Reserve's favorite gauge for forecasting FUTURE inflation.