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BumRushDaShow

(165,177 posts)
Sun Nov 30, 2025, 03:40 AM Nov 30

K-shaped economy and inflation boost Black Friday sales by 4.1% from last year, online spending jumps 9.1%

Source: CNN Business

PUBLISHED Nov 29, 2025, 4:32 PM ET


US retail sales on Black Friday, the busiest shopping day of the year, climbed 4.1% compared with last year, according to data released Saturday by Mastercard SpendingPulse. Online shoppers alone spent $11.8 billion, up 9.1% from 2024, according to data collection platform Adobe Analytics.

But those gains don’t account for higher prices due to inflation, so actual spending could be flat. “We have 3% inflation, so maybe (the 4.1% increase in spending) is a real increase of just 1% or so, which is not that much of an increase,” Rick Newman, who writes The Pinpoint Press, a newsletter on the US economy, told CNN on Friday.

There’s also a bifurcation in who’s spending. The Federal Reserve’s most recent Beige Book, a collection of anecdotes about the economy, showed consumer spending among low- and middle-income consumers is on the decline. Meanwhile, the Fed found high-end consumers are continuing to spend — including on luxury items and travel.

Consumers have bought fewer items this holiday season, but the average selling prices are higher, according to Claudia Lombana, a national consumer expert. “The ones that have higher income are spending at will, but those who are less affluent are budgeting,” Lombana told CNN’s Omar Jimenez on Saturday.

Read more: https://www.cnn.com/2025/11/29/business/black-friday-us-econony-spending

29 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
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K-shaped economy and inflation boost Black Friday sales by 4.1% from last year, online spending jumps 9.1% (Original Post) BumRushDaShow Nov 30 OP
So basically no increase.... Lovie777 Nov 30 #1
Not only no increase popsdenver Nov 30 #15
Incorrect Polybius Nov 30 #23
I believe you are correct Progressive dog Dec 1 #25
I remember being a young man when I first got into stocks Polybius Nov 30 #22
Was out and about the past couple of days Deminpenn Nov 30 #2
And how much has credit card debt increased since Trump raised prices on most items with his tariffs? Lonestarblue Nov 30 #3
Some people add too much debt to their load over the holidays. People need to think twice about purchases. Vinca Nov 30 #4
Only 1 in 5 Americans are debt free. Gimpyknee Nov 30 #5
By design. (n/t) OldBaldy1701E Nov 30 #7
I try to be, only putting a small amount on the credit card every so often and then paying it off quickly. Vinca Nov 30 #11
I tried the spending boycott thingy. I gave up. It was just too hard not to spend my money. Hotler Nov 30 #6
The rich are desperate to make things look like they are great. OldBaldy1701E Nov 30 #8
It may be a hundred years later but history is about to repeat itself Bluestocking Nov 30 #9
Yes, it is Deminpenn Nov 30 #18
Matches What I Saw Yesterday In Philly modrepub Nov 30 #10
Not surprised, as TV has been blaring non-stop Black Friday sales shit for weeks and weeks. RedWhiteBlueIsRacist Nov 30 #12
Just my personal experience: I went to Walmart on (Black?) Friday in my little town BComplex Nov 30 #13
I was a Corporate Executive in Retailing popsdenver Nov 30 #14
How much of the increase is the result of adding in tariffs to the price twodogsbarking Nov 30 #16
Yawn...so what? People will put all of Christmas on plastic so they can have a Christmas Bengus81 Nov 30 #17
So much for the boycott. mdbl Nov 30 #19
I personally don't think the boycott made sense iemanja Nov 30 #20
Maybe from the standpoint of the entire season mdbl Nov 30 #24
I am visiting my mother in law in Arizona kimbutgar Nov 30 #21
What is a K shaped economy? Marthe48 Dec 1 #26
There's an explanation here (it can be applied to any 2 sectors of business) - BumRushDaShow Dec 1 #27
Thank you! Marthe48 Dec 1 #28
Most welcome! BumRushDaShow Dec 1 #29

popsdenver

(1,428 posts)
15. Not only no increase
Sun Nov 30, 2025, 12:46 PM
Nov 30

but actually quite a DECREASE considering the inflation in just this past 12 months, especially when you throw in ShrinkFlation...........

Polybius

(21,394 posts)
23. Incorrect
Sun Nov 30, 2025, 07:39 PM
Nov 30

The overall inflation increase over the past 12 months is 3%, so 4.1% it's still a small increase of 1.1%.

The most recent U.S. inflation rate for the 12 months ending in September 2025 was 3.0%. Inflation for food was 3.1% over the same period, while energy costs saw a slight decline of -0.4%. Some categories with significant price increases include energy services (6.4%), tobacco (6.9%), and natural gas (11.7%).
U.S. inflation by category (September 2025)
All items: 3.0%
Food: 3.1%
Food at home: 2.7%
Food away from home: 3.7%
Energy: -0.4%
Energy services: 6.4%
Energy commodities: -0.4%
Shelter: 3.6%
Rent of primary residence: 3.4%
Owners' equivalent rent: 3.8%
Other notable categories:
Tobacco and smoking products: 6.9%
Motor vehicle maintenance and repair: 7.7%
Natural gas (piped): 11.7%
Used cars and trucks: 5.1%
Airline fare: 3.2%
Medical care services: 3.9%

Progressive dog

(7,566 posts)
25. I believe you are correct
Mon Dec 1, 2025, 02:53 PM
Dec 1

and that Black Friday sales are slanted more toward imports. These sales should only be price compared to previous Black Fridays.

Polybius

(21,394 posts)
22. I remember being a young man when I first got into stocks
Sun Nov 30, 2025, 07:36 PM
Nov 30

I was complaining that my portfolio barely made an increase. An experienced trader put his arm around me and said something like "Never complain when your stocks are in the green, no matter how small the gain. Only complain if they are in the red."

Deminpenn

(17,277 posts)
2. Was out and about the past couple of days
Sun Nov 30, 2025, 04:20 AM
Nov 30

Was surprised the local WalMart parking lot wasn't packed either day. Asked one of the workers who told me there was a line of 4 or 5 dozen people waiting for the doors to open on Friday, but then it petered out. There were shoppers on both days when I went, but the store wasn't packed. Later went to the local mall and the same thing, there were shoppers, but not the kind of crowds one normally expects on the days after Thanksgiving. Aldi was about the same, but I noticed they'd aleady sold a good chunk of their seasonal xmas items.

Lonestarblue

(13,196 posts)
3. And how much has credit card debt increased since Trump raised prices on most items with his tariffs?
Sun Nov 30, 2025, 06:44 AM
Nov 30

“Credit card debt reaches $1.21 trillion — in line with last year’s all-time high, NY Fed finds”. https://www.cnbc.com/2025/08/05/ny-fed-credit-card-debt-second-quarter-2025.html

At what point will we see people lose their homes and cars because they can’t afford to live on their earnings. The US economy feels like it’s now built on a shaky house of cards created by Trump and his Republican sycophants.

Vinca

(53,222 posts)
4. Some people add too much debt to their load over the holidays. People need to think twice about purchases.
Sun Nov 30, 2025, 07:51 AM
Nov 30

Vinca

(53,222 posts)
11. I try to be, only putting a small amount on the credit card every so often and then paying it off quickly.
Sun Nov 30, 2025, 11:00 AM
Nov 30

I think people wonder why I don't buy a new car every so often, but the 2012 Rav4 runs fine and has relatively low mileage. It's been paid off for years.

Hotler

(13,717 posts)
6. I tried the spending boycott thingy. I gave up. It was just too hard not to spend my money.
Sun Nov 30, 2025, 08:04 AM
Nov 30

I'm still spending as if Biden is still in office. I
The spending this holiday season should be the lowest on record. It could be. All it takes is participation.

OldBaldy1701E

(9,992 posts)
8. The rich are desperate to make things look like they are great.
Sun Nov 30, 2025, 08:33 AM
Nov 30

So, they are out spending money to make sure their Dear Leader's economy looks good.

I hope they all go bankrupt doing that.

Also, that orange gibbon and his hooting cohorts are not responsible for this bias in our economy. That has been going on for some time. They are just the current cheerleaders.

modrepub

(3,987 posts)
10. Matches What I Saw Yesterday In Philly
Sun Nov 30, 2025, 10:32 AM
Nov 30

Big crowds, not actually buying a lot of stuff from the stands but putting their kids on the rides (+5$ per ride) and the food venders were busy (not much below $10).

I'd say this is a good start to the Holiday season. But, I've been around long enough to know, purchases can dry up as the season progresses and bad weather in the right parts of the country can impact in-store sales. Uneven spending can also favor large retailers over small businesses. In other words, it's way too early to be crowing about how well things are going.

RedWhiteBlueIsRacist

(1,730 posts)
12. Not surprised, as TV has been blaring non-stop Black Friday sales shit for weeks and weeks.
Sun Nov 30, 2025, 11:12 AM
Nov 30

Even my European email outfit (Proton) was sending me Black Friday offers. WTF?

BComplex

(9,734 posts)
13. Just my personal experience: I went to Walmart on (Black?) Friday in my little town
Sun Nov 30, 2025, 11:42 AM
Nov 30

There were no more people there than you would find on any day. I hate going to Walmart...ever!....but that's the only place in an hour's drive that has some things that no other store in town has (small towns aren't known for a lot of variety), and I figured I see how "crazy" black friday was there. It was a total nothing burger.

But the media wants to pump up trump by saying spending was up? Was it the tariffs? Corporate greed thrown in?

popsdenver

(1,428 posts)
14. I was a Corporate Executive in Retailing
Sun Nov 30, 2025, 12:44 PM
Nov 30

50 years ago, before I saw Corporations for what they are....

Increases in Sales meant nothing to us because of inflation.......

And a few percent increase in sales, was frightening, when we looked at units sold.

And their 4.1, considering the gross amount of inflation this year, should frighten everyone greatly.
They have known this for months, and have already been having tons of pre Black Friday sales to try and get "theirs" while the getting is good.
They publish the 4.1, to make everyone think that people aren't cutting back or worried about the economy, and to try and fool the stock holders.........

It goes hand in hand with the Republicans, ENDING all reporting about Labor, Un-employment, etc etc etc which have skyrocketed the past few months...........

twodogsbarking

(17,484 posts)
16. How much of the increase is the result of adding in tariffs to the price
Sun Nov 30, 2025, 01:16 PM
Nov 30

while the money gets diverted to the government. Given there were no tariffs last year this should be taken into consideration before comparisons are made. If the tariffs are bringing in "billions & billions" this would skew any comparison except that we have no accurate reporting of tariffs that I know of.

Bengus81

(9,758 posts)
17. Yawn...so what? People will put all of Christmas on plastic so they can have a Christmas
Sun Nov 30, 2025, 02:22 PM
Nov 30

This time around though people are getting bent over by Trump and his tariffs--he's TAXING Christmas period.

That dipshit will think that people will keep spending like that in all of 2026,they won't.

mdbl

(8,020 posts)
19. So much for the boycott.
Sun Nov 30, 2025, 04:49 PM
Nov 30

They're really teaching these retailers a lesson!

And they wonder why prices never come down.

iemanja

(57,314 posts)
20. I personally don't think the boycott made sense
Sun Nov 30, 2025, 05:10 PM
Nov 30

If consumers had bought before or after Black Friday/Cyber Monday, they would only give retailers greater profits. They also boycotted small business Saturday.

mdbl

(8,020 posts)
24. Maybe from the standpoint of the entire season
Sun Nov 30, 2025, 08:29 PM
Nov 30

But if consumers don't start to exercise some power over retailers they are doomed to higher prices. AFAIC, a good percentage of our inflation rates over the last few years are just plain greed from opportunity to blame something.

kimbutgar

(26,695 posts)
21. I am visiting my mother in law in Arizona
Sun Nov 30, 2025, 06:20 PM
Nov 30

And today while my husband was watching the football game I went to a large outdoor shopping center in Surprise . There were a lot of people in the store looking for bargains and when I went to buy something, there were only 2 people ahead of me in line and when I went to another store same thing. Usually there are 10-15 people in line at these stores.

Marthe48

(22,628 posts)
26. What is a K shaped economy?
Mon Dec 1, 2025, 03:12 PM
Dec 1

I know what pear-shaped is, not K shaped.

I've decided to give cash or card presents. I will choose the price. My loved ones can decide when to spend them, and maybe find a way to wait out the tariff crap.

Anyway, if someone can explain K shaped economy, thanks.

BumRushDaShow

(165,177 posts)
27. There's an explanation here (it can be applied to any 2 sectors of business) -
Mon Dec 1, 2025, 03:24 PM
Dec 1
https://talkmarkets.com/content/stocks--equities/the-k-shaped-economy-in-one-graph?post=541313



I.e.,

A K shaped economy describes a post-crisis recovery where different parts of the economy and society are performing at sharply diverging rates, forming the two arms of the letter “K.”:

  • The upper arm (going up): Sectors, companies, assets, and people that benefit from the recovery and, in many cases, are wealthier than before the pandemic. This includes investors in technology stocks, big tech companies, the luxury sectors, high-income professionals, and asset owners.
  • The lower arm (going down): Sectors, small businesses, and people that continue to decline or stagnate even as the overall economy appears to improve. Examples include: the hospitality and travel industries, many lower-priced retail outlets, low-wage service workers, small businesses, and many middle-class and lower-income households.


  • So the above graph is showing how the S&P 500 market is shooting up while the Consumer Sentiment is cratering.
    Latest Discussions»Latest Breaking News»K-shaped economy and infl...