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Wicked Blue

(7,698 posts)
Sun Nov 3, 2024, 11:53 AM Nov 2024

The greatest presidential predictor has made his FINAL pick for Trump vs. Harris: Who will win?

Source: NJ.com

By Kevin Manahan | NJ Advance Media for NJ.com

The polls are tight — and many are considered fake. The betting markets reportedly are rigged. So, who is a voter to believe when searching for a prediction on who will be elected president on Nov. 5: Vice President Kamala Harris or former president Donald Trump?

Well, so-called presidential election Nostradamus who has nailed every presidential election except one since 1984, is sticking with the pick he made months ago, when the polls were against her.

Harris will beat Trump on Tuesday, said Allan Lichtman — who predicted Trump would win in 2016, when most national polls showed Hillary Clinton far ahead and that Trump would lose against Joe Biden in 2020, told USA Today.

“Nothing has changed to change my prediction that I made on Sept. 5, in defiance of the polls,” Lichtman said in a YouTube video.

Read more: https://www.nj.com/politics/2024/11/the-greatest-presidential-predictor-has-made-his-final-pick-for-trump-vs-harris-who-will-win.html

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The greatest presidential predictor has made his FINAL pick for Trump vs. Harris: Who will win? (Original Post) Wicked Blue Nov 2024 OP
Interesting that the only time he was "wrong" was in 2000 Rachel M at 6 pm Nov 2024 #1
so basically he has a perfect record. Native Nov 2024 #5
Yes, because Gore actually did win n/t TexasBushwhacker Nov 2024 #8
Indeed he does. dchill Nov 2024 #11
2000 was outright theft IbogaProject Nov 2024 #9
I had thought it was going to be the rooster in "Chicken Poop Bingo." LastLiberal in PalmSprings Nov 2024 #2
He made his prediction two months ago Polybius Nov 2024 #3
The article mentions that he made this prediction 2 months ago, and he is now saying he still stands by that prediction Native Nov 2024 #6
I understand that Polybius Nov 2024 #7
Because 2 months ago... Whatthe_Firetruck Nov 2024 #13
gotcha Native Nov 2024 #19
I've been watching Prof. Lichman's show on youtube. Very informative, so it's no surprise we're now seeing the surge for onetexan Nov 2024 #14
Yup, he's great Polybius Nov 2024 #16
Thanks for the link! EllieBC Nov 2024 #4
I hope this news doesn't convince any Harris-Walz supporters they don't need to bother actually VOTING. Beartracks Nov 2024 #10
Thank you for posting this. PoindexterOglethorpe Nov 2024 #12
Why would "The betting markets reportedly are rigged." KS Toronado Nov 2024 #15
Excellent angrychair Nov 2024 #17
OMG I hope he's right 🙏 🙏🙏🙏 TommieMommy Nov 2024 #18
As they say in the investing world, past performance is no guarantee of future results. LudwigPastorius Nov 2024 #20
Betting markets don't mean a fuck thing when it comes to the goddamn election. MAGA cowards are shitting the bed. SoFlaBro Nov 2024 #21

Rachel M at 6 pm

(138 posts)
1. Interesting that the only time he was "wrong" was in 2000
Sun Nov 3, 2024, 12:27 PM
Nov 2024

Lichtman is known for correctly predicting every election from 1984 through 2020, with the exception of Bush-Gore in 2000.

From Wikipedia:

"The Keys to the White House, also known as the 13 Keys, is a prediction system for determining the outcome of presidential elections in the United States. ... The system is a thirteen-point checklist that uses true-or-false statements: when five or fewer items on the checklist are false, the nominee of the incumbent party is predicted to win the election, but when six or more items on the checklist are false, the nominee of the challenging party is predicted to win."

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Keys_to_the_White_House

IbogaProject

(4,128 posts)
9. 2000 was outright theft
Sun Nov 3, 2024, 01:04 PM
Nov 2024

So his model couldn't predict that B$ in Florida sending to the SC. Gore actually got more votes in Fl in 2000.

2. I had thought it was going to be the rooster in "Chicken Poop Bingo."
Sun Nov 3, 2024, 12:29 PM
Nov 2024

The square where the bird poops will predict the winner. It's as accurate as most of the polls I've seen. Chicken Poop Bingo

Native

(6,988 posts)
6. The article mentions that he made this prediction 2 months ago, and he is now saying he still stands by that prediction
Sun Nov 3, 2024, 12:42 PM
Nov 2024

Polybius

(19,385 posts)
7. I understand that
Sun Nov 3, 2024, 12:46 PM
Nov 2024

I just don't agree that standing by a prediction is news again. Also, he has always stood by his predictions.

Whatthe_Firetruck

(607 posts)
13. Because 2 months ago...
Sun Nov 3, 2024, 02:39 PM
Nov 2024

Mid to low information voters weren't paying attention.

This close to the election, more people are looking at predictions so it's relevant again.

onetexan

(13,913 posts)
14. I've been watching Prof. Lichman's show on youtube. Very informative, so it's no surprise we're now seeing the surge for
Sun Nov 3, 2024, 02:40 PM
Nov 2024

Harris Walz the past couple weeks. He's been unwavering in his prediction.

EllieBC

(3,424 posts)
4. Thanks for the link!
Sun Nov 3, 2024, 12:37 PM
Nov 2024

The wiki link is pretty cool at explaining how he comes to his conclusions and predictions.

Beartracks

(13,784 posts)
10. I hope this news doesn't convince any Harris-Walz supporters they don't need to bother actually VOTING.
Sun Nov 3, 2024, 01:43 PM
Nov 2024

I'm still smarting from going to bed confident in 2016 and waking up in an alternate timeline where the dumbest moron of a Republican got put in the White House.

=================

PoindexterOglethorpe

(27,430 posts)
12. Thank you for posting this.
Sun Nov 3, 2024, 02:19 PM
Nov 2024

It's actually been posted before on DU, and absolutely bears repeating.

KS Toronado

(20,963 posts)
15. Why would "The betting markets reportedly are rigged."
Sun Nov 3, 2024, 02:46 PM
Nov 2024

These betting sites are saying TSF is going to win the election but Kamala will win the popular vote.

For every dollar one bets on Kamala they'll give you approximately $2.50 if she does win. That's more
than double your money.

If they are betting on him winning the swing states using some reQublican underhandedness they
are forgetting Biden's newfound powers of immunity from the SCOTUS.

LudwigPastorius

(11,848 posts)
20. As they say in the investing world, past performance is no guarantee of future results.
Sun Nov 3, 2024, 10:38 PM
Nov 2024

Get out the vote!

SoFlaBro

(3,424 posts)
21. Betting markets don't mean a fuck thing when it comes to the goddamn election. MAGA cowards are shitting the bed.
Mon Nov 4, 2024, 12:21 AM
Nov 2024
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