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BigmanPigman

(52,356 posts)
Sat Oct 3, 2020, 07:49 PM Oct 2020

France: Does anyone know why the huge increase in new Covid cases?

16,000 reported today alone. Are people not wearing masks and social distancing? Why the large numbers recently?

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France: Does anyone know why the huge increase in new Covid cases? (Original Post) BigmanPigman Oct 2020 OP
Early on (back in March), conventional wisdom was that the truly bad surge of enough Oct 2020 #1
This message was self-deleted by its author Cicada Oct 2020 #2
This latest surge may well be happening PoindexterOglethorpe Oct 2020 #3
So far the deaths aren't increasing much, hopefully that will continue. BigmanPigman Oct 2020 #4
True. PoindexterOglethorpe Oct 2020 #5
Yes, that is what I have heard BigmanPigman Oct 2020 #6
I think too many people are really thinking we'll have a vaccine PoindexterOglethorpe Oct 2020 #7

enough

(13,466 posts)
1. Early on (back in March), conventional wisdom was that the truly bad surge of
Sat Oct 3, 2020, 08:15 PM
Oct 2020

COVID-19 was going to come in the fall of 2020. It was predicted to be far worse than the original onset. This was universally predicted by all experts at the time. It seems everyone has forgotten this, but now it seems to be happening everywhere.

Response to BigmanPigman (Original post)

PoindexterOglethorpe

(26,840 posts)
3. This latest surge may well be happening
Sat Oct 3, 2020, 11:39 PM
Oct 2020

because people really are letting down their guard, not social distancing, not wearing masks properly, and so on.

PoindexterOglethorpe

(26,840 posts)
5. True.
Sun Oct 4, 2020, 10:12 AM
Oct 2020

I have read any number of times that this virus is becoming more deadly and more contagious. It's not clear to me that it's doing either of those. To me, the most defining and worrisome thing about it is that it's so unpredictable in how it affects different people. It ranges from being completely symptomless, to dying, to staying ill for months, to possibly getting it a second time.

This is going to be with us for a very long time. If a vaccine is developed soon, by which I mean within the next two years, that is truly safe, effective, and confers permanent immunity, then eventually, when enough people are vaccinated, we will be out of the woods. And that will still take a very long time, possibly years, even if everyone willingly gets vaccinated.

I have been saying this about how we're in it for the long haul: Pretend it's 1939 and you and I are planning a trip to Europe next year. We are so much looking forward to it. We're planning to visit Paris, Rome, Venice, the French Riviera, just as many places as we can get to. Sure, the political situation there seems a bit worrisome, but just last year British Prime Minister Neville Chamberlain signed an agreement with Germany that assures us of peace in our time. Then September rolls around and WWII breaks out. Oh, crap. Well, it looks like we're not going to Europe next year, but maybe the war won't last very long and we can go in 1940. But it's not a short war, and doesn't finally end until May of 1945 in Europe. The soonest we will take that long-postponed trip will be 1946, more like a year or two later. And when we finally get there, it's a completely different place than it would have been in 1939.

And that's what it's going to be like with this virus. It's going to make changes that at the present are unimaginable. I hope that they will mostly be positive ones, such as some kind of universal health care in this country, possibly the beginnings of a universal basic income. The process of education may well be profoundly changed. Perhaps people will become more compassionate to each other. Maybe the current inequalities of wealth in this country will no longer be tolerable.

We can only live through this, do our very personal best, and see what eventually happens.

BigmanPigman

(52,356 posts)
6. Yes, that is what I have heard
Sun Oct 4, 2020, 07:11 PM
Oct 2020

and am preparing mentally for this to last years. That is realistic, given the fact that this new virus is still a mystery in many ways. A friend said she planned a trip to Europe next Summer and I didn't say anything but I think that is not going to happen. I expect that we will be like some Asian countries and will be wearing masks for years. Our lives will change in a zillion ways from this virus.

PoindexterOglethorpe

(26,840 posts)
7. I think too many people are really thinking we'll have a vaccine
Sun Oct 4, 2020, 09:19 PM
Oct 2020

next year and all will be well very soon. While I'm hardly an epidemiologist or vaccine expert, I'm somewhat doubtful it will happen that soon or that easily. And I'm not even thinking in terms of we'll all need a new vaccination every few months.

I took a cruise the beginning of March and I'm so very glad I took it. I went to Hawaii, had a wonderful time, and got back home to everything being buttoned up. I'd actually signed up for another cruise next year, but even if it hadn't already been cancelled I would not go. I hope to cruise again, I hope to visit my son on the East Coast, take the train trip across Canada, visit friends and family around the country. Someday, someday.

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