I categorically reject that reasoning. Vance has one of the most punchable faces in America and it has only gotten worse since Jan 2025. The best scenario is for Trump to leave the scene (one way or another) with Vance getting First Chair. In that case, the Republicans would have to run Vance in 2028. That is our best scenario.
Our worst scenario is that Trump hangs on to the end and, seeing that the Trump era is over, the Republicans have a real primary and nominate somebody would have a much better chance than Vance.
https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/favorability/j-d-vance
On Inauguration day, Vance was 42 favorable, 42 unfavorable. Today, he has EXACTLY the same favorable of 42%. He hasn't improved on inch. But his unfavorable has gone up to 48%. In other words, thebase may be there, but raising that favorable anywhere near 50% will be next to impossible.
Of course, elections aren't decided on the net favorable alone. It is all about who the Dems nomonate. If we get behind a real fighter, where Americans can sense a "fire in the belly", a Vance victory becomes almost impossible, no matter how much money the billionaires throw at the race.
= new reply since forum marked as read
