Democrats See Path to House Control in 2026

WASHINGTON—Democrats are entering the 2026 midterm elections with a clear path to reclaiming control of the House, helped by President Trump’s wobbles in his second term, Republican retirements and tight margins across the map that are set to tilt the balance of power in their direction.

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The contests are shaping up amid continuing economic anxiety in the U.S., with both parties continuing talks on potentially extending expired Affordable Care Act subsidies that keep down insurance prices for millions of Americans. The recent military strike in Venezuela and the possibility of more foreign actions also could influence the election outcome.

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Despite all 435 seats being on the ballot, only about 60 districts—roughly 14% of the House—are currently considered truly competitive, according to election analysts. The campaign arm of the House Democrats is targeting 39 Republican-held districts, including several that Kamala Harris carried in the 2024 presidential election. Among the most closely watched is New York’s 17th District, held by Republican Mike Lawler, a moderate lawmaker who has survived narrow races in a district that leans Democratic at the top of the ticket.

A series of seats in California and Pennsylvania also are seen as ripe targets for Democrats, with Reps. David Valadao and Scott Perry among the GOP lawmakers defending seats deemed toss-ups. Republicans, meanwhile, are aiming to flip over two dozen Democratic-held districts, including the 13 split-ticket districts in which Trump prevailed in the presidential race.

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Already, 46 House incumbents—21 Democrats and 25 Republicans—have said they won’t seek re-election according to Ballotpedia, an unusually high number this early in the cycle. The imbalance has disproportionately affected Republicans, forcing the party to defend several open seats that might otherwise have remained safely in GOP hands.

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Democrats are leaning heavily into the “six-year itch,” the tendency for voter dissatisfaction with a president to peak during a second term. Democratic leaders are emphasizing issues such as healthcare costs, affordability and standing up to the Trump administration.

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