Chances of US choosing to kidnap president of a nation in which a politician just won Nobel Prize: 1 in 36,000

Calculations do not take into account a psychopathic American president who is pissed that he didn't win the Nobel Peace Prize.

Calculations by ChatGPT

A “U.S. president-kidnapping intervention” happens somewhere in the world within a 4-month window (event A) and the target country is the one that, in that same 4-month window, has a politician who just won the Nobel Peace Prize (event B).

A clean way to express that is:

P(A∩B)=P(A)×P(B∣A)

Where:

P(A) = chance the U.S. kidnaps/seizes a sitting president in a randomly selected 4-month window.

P(B∣A) = chance that, given such an event happens somewhere, it happens to the Nobel-country (the single “Nobel-country” created by that year’s Nobel announcement).

1) Estimating
P(A): how often does the U.S. “seize a president” in a 4-month window?

Using a straightforward historical base-rate approach:

Nobel Peace Prize begins in 1901.

From 1901 to early 2026 is ~125 years ≈ 375 four-month windows.

How many U.S. actions clearly match “military intervention resulting in capture/seizure of the top leader”?

Panama / Noriega: Noriega surrendered and was taken into U.S. custody on Jan 3, 1990 (after the 1989 invasion).

That gives 2 events over ~375 four-month windows:

=0.00533≈0.533%

So, about 0.5% per 4-month window (roughly 1 in 188 windows), using this strict definition.

(If you include disputed/ambiguous cases, the estimate rises, but then you’re changing the definition.)

2) Estimating
P(B∣A): if such an event happens, what’s the chance it hits “the Nobel-country”?

With 193 UN member states, the probability the target matches the one Nobel-country is:

= 0.518%

3) Joint probability
P(A∩B)

Multiply the two:

0.00533
×
0.00518

0.0000276
P(A∩B)≈0.00533×0.00518≈0.0000276

As a percent:
0.0000276
=
0.00276
%
0.0000276=0.00276%

As “1 in X”:

0.0000276
≈
36,200
1/0.0000276≈36,200

Result (under the explicit base-rate + uniform-target model)

≈ 0.0028% per 4-month window (about 1 in 36,000).