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JohnnyRingo

(20,511 posts)
Sun Jan 4, 2026, 03:22 PM Sunday

Did Fiona Hill warn us of a Russian deal involving Ukraine and Venezuela?

Yes. "During her 2019 testimony to the U.S. Congress, former National Security Council official Fiona Hill stated that Russia was "signaling very strongly that they wanted to somehow make some very strange swap arrangement between Venezuela and Ukraine".

Hill, a top Russia expert, explained that Russia was implicitly offering to end its support for the Venezuelan regime in exchange for the United States' acquiescence to Russian dominance in Ukraine. The underlying message from Moscow was essentially: "You have your Monroe doctrine; you want us out of your backyard. Well, we have our own version of this. You're in our backyard in Ukraine".

This suggested an attempt by Russia to negotiate spheres of influence, viewing conflicts as proxy wars where a distant foothold (Venezuela) could be traded for control over a neighboring country considered part of its "near abroad" (Ukraine). The issue gained renewed attention in light of later developments in both Venezuela and Ukraine.

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Did Fiona Hill warn us of a Russian deal involving Ukraine and Venezuela? (Original Post) JohnnyRingo Sunday OP
Media not yet addressing whether Putin greenlighted the arrest. delisen Sunday #1
Medtronic? Wiz Imp Sunday #9
Words JohnnyRingo Sunday #11
Trump admin hinted at the fact that they were letting other powers have their spheres of influence in that NSC document ChicagoTeamster Sunday #2
I doubt China would back Russia. Diraven Sunday #5
Reminds me of a game of Risk JohnnyRingo Sunday #12
Finally. ananda Sunday #3
The Bargain gfarber Sunday #4
K&R orangecrush Sunday #6
I was sitting in Europe LittleGirl Sunday #7
Similar to Mafia crime families Pinback Sunday #8
I think you nailed it AverageOldGuy Sunday #10
'Russia Wanted Ukraine in Exchange for Venezuela' - Diplomat Fiona Hill in Congress LetMyPeopleVote Sunday #13
How was Russia in any position to support Venezuela? Kaleva Sunday #14

delisen

(7,221 posts)
1. Media not yet addressing whether Putin greenlighted the arrest.
Sun Jan 4, 2026, 03:32 PM
Sunday

Last edited Sun Jan 4, 2026, 08:28 PM - Edit history (1)

We may be closer to a greater war in Europe than we realize.

I had not known that Fiona Hill had addressed this

Wiz Imp

(9,006 posts)
9. Medtronic?
Sun Jan 4, 2026, 06:22 PM
Sunday

Putin has blasted the US over the action in Venezuela.

https://www.thedailybeast.com/warmongering-putin-trolls-trump-by-condemning-armed-invasion-of-venezuela/

Warmongering Putin Trolls Trump by Condemning Armed Invasion of Venezuela
Russia’s Foreign Ministry expressed outrage at American “armed aggression.”

Vladimir Putin’s regime condemned President Trump’s military operation in
Venezuela, expressing outrage at the “armed aggression” even as it continues its own war in Ukraine. In a Telegram statement Saturday, Russia’s Foreign Ministry criticized Washington for the attacks, which Trump described as a “large scale strike” that led to the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro. “This morning, the U.S. committed an act of armed aggression against Venezuela,” the statement read. “This development gives rise to deep concern and warrants condemnation.” The Russian government, which launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine almost four years ago, added that the “pretexts used to justify these actions are untenable.” “Venezuela must be guaranteed the right to determine its own destiny, free from any destructive—let alone military—external interference,” the statement read. The message comes as Putin continues to wage war against Kyiv, refusing to compromise in talks aimed at ending the conflict and demanding that Ukraine hand over large swathes of territory that it controls.

ChicagoTeamster

(445 posts)
2. Trump admin hinted at the fact that they were letting other powers have their spheres of influence in that NSC document
Sun Jan 4, 2026, 04:40 PM
Sunday

Who's side would they take in a wider European war? I think if the US sat it out EU and NATO allies could defeat Russia, Belarus, Iran and North Korea. I think China might back Russia and India would probably be more inclined to sit it out but if push comes to shove they would probably back EU side.

Diraven

(1,826 posts)
5. I doubt China would back Russia.
Sun Jan 4, 2026, 05:01 PM
Sunday

The only thing China wants from Russia is oil and gas. If Russia was getting crushed in a war with all of Europe, China would probably swoop in and just grab the Russian far east and as far west into Siberia as they can get, taking most of the oil land for their own. Honestly I think most of the people there would gladly switch allegiance to China without even a fight when their only other option is being conscripted for suicidal meat wave assaults in Europe.

JohnnyRingo

(20,511 posts)
12. Reminds me of a game of Risk
Sun Jan 4, 2026, 07:13 PM
Sunday

If you've ever played the classic board game, you know what I mean.
One territory at a time.

ananda

(34,439 posts)
3. Finally.
Sun Jan 4, 2026, 04:43 PM
Sunday

I've been wondering why Putin was so acquiescent
about losing Venezuelan oil.

Thanks.

gfarber

(205 posts)
4. The Bargain
Sun Jan 4, 2026, 04:47 PM
Sunday


There once was an analyst, Fiona Hill,
Who warned of a bargain that’s ill:
Said Russia implied,
With a wink not denied,
“A swap might be fitting our will.”

“In testimony given one year,
A strange sort of trade did appear:
Venezuela, perhaps,
For Ukraine in our grasp—
A message quite stark and quite clear.”

They hinted, “You’ve got your domain,
Your Monroe Doctrine guarding your lane.
If we step back down south,
Will you quietly mouth
That Ukraine is our strategic terrain?”

A deal of “spheres,” neatly defined,
With borders decided in mind:
Proxy fights here and there,
As if nations were spare—
Just pieces to barter in kind.

So Hill rang the bell long ago,
Of how great-power logics can go:
Far outposts are traded,
Close neighbors invaded—
A warning worth heeding, we know.

LittleGirl

(8,947 posts)
7. I was sitting in Europe
Sun Jan 4, 2026, 05:11 PM
Sunday

Watching her testimony and I remember how startled we were. Yikes. 1k miles from Kiev when they invaded. Scary

Pinback

(13,504 posts)
8. Similar to Mafia crime families
Sun Jan 4, 2026, 06:01 PM
Sunday

operating in different territories. David Cay Johnston, among others, has looked extensively into Trump’s many connections to mobsters:
https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2016/05/donald-trump-2016-mob-organized-crime-213910/

AverageOldGuy

(3,358 posts)
10. I think you nailed it
Sun Jan 4, 2026, 06:25 PM
Sunday

Looking beyond Venezuela -- so we and Russia mutually recognize that the other is king of their neighborhood.

In our hemisphere, what does this mean for Cuba, Greenland, Mexico, . . .

In Europe, Putin would be strengthened in his lifelong desire to re-establish the old Soviet Union's empire.

Reminds me of that old jungle proverb: When the elephants fight, the grass is trampled.

LetMyPeopleVote

(175,007 posts)
13. 'Russia Wanted Ukraine in Exchange for Venezuela' - Diplomat Fiona Hill in Congress
Sun Jan 4, 2026, 07:34 PM
Sunday

Putin was supporting Maduro in trump's first term while the US was supporting Ukraine. Putin offered to trade Venezuela for Ukraine by withdrawing Russia's support for Venezuela in exchange for the US withdrawing support for Ukraine. I am shocked that trump waited until now to take Putin up on this deal.




https://hromadske.ua/en/posts/russians-wanted-ukraine-in-exchange-for-venezuela-diplomat-fiona-hill-in-congress

In the spring of 2019, Russia sent hundreds of operators to Venezuela to support the regime of Nicolás Maduro, on whose resignation the United States insisted. In parallel, Moscow made it clear to Washington that they were ready to end their support for them, but only in exchange for Ukraine.

In the spring of 2019, Russia sent hundreds of "operators" to Venezuela to support the regime of Nicolás Maduro, on whose resignation the United States insisted. At the same time, Moscow made it clear to Washington that they were ready to end their support for them, but only in exchange for Ukraine.

"The Russians [...] were signaling very strongly that they wanted to somehow make some very strange swap arrangement between Venezuela and Ukraine: [...] You want us out of your backyard [...]We have our own version of this. You're in our backyard in Ukraine. And we were getting that sent to us, kind of informally through channels. It was in the Russian press, various commentators,” says Fiona Hill at the U.S. Congress.

A former intelligence officer and later a diplomat, she served as the Senior Director of the U.S. National Security Council specializing in Russian and European affairs for the last two years. On November 21, Hill testified publicly in Congress as part of an investigation into the impeachment of President Donald Trump. And on October 14, the diplomat spoke at a closed session of Congress. The transcript of the speech was published on the website of the Intelligence Committee.

Kaleva

(40,191 posts)
14. How was Russia in any position to support Venezuela?
Sun Jan 4, 2026, 08:40 PM
Sunday

And being able to prevent Trump from doing what he did?

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