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UpInArms

(54,051 posts)
Fri Dec 19, 2025, 09:53 AM Dec 19

NY Fed President Williams says some 'technical factors' distorted November's CPI reading downward

New York Federal Reserve President John Williams said Friday that “technical factors” likely distorted November’s inflation data, pushing the headline reading lower than it otherwise would have been.

“There were some special factors of practical factors that really are related to the fact that they weren’t able to collect date in October and not in the first half of November. And because of that, I think the data were distorted in some of the categories, and that pushed down the CPI reading, probably by a tenth or so,” Williams said on CNBC’s “Squawk Box.”



Because the October CPI release was canceled, Thursday’s report lacked several of the standard data points typically included in a CPI report. The Bureau of Labor Statistics said it could not go back and collect October survey data, though it relied on “nonsurvey data sources” to construct the index.

As a result, economists may be cautious about interpreting the report as clear evidence that inflation is on a sustained downward path, given the absence of an October comparison. Economists believe some some inputs to the owners’ equivalent rent calculation for the canceled October month were estimated by the BLS to have zero inflation, distorting that calculation downward.

More at:

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/12/19/ny-fed-president-williams-says-some-technical-factors-distorted-novembers-cpi-reading-downward.html

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NY Fed President Williams says some 'technical factors' distorted November's CPI reading downward (Original Post) UpInArms Dec 19 OP
Here is a good tell about the CPI numbers gab13by13 Dec 19 #1
The stock market will be untethered to the Economy edhopper Dec 19 #2
Yeah, like Trumpies are "technically" in charge Prairie Gates Dec 19 #3
I'm sure this will generate numerous posts about Tump "fudging" the numbers. Wiz Imp Dec 19 #4
Another wonderful effect of the totally unnecessary, futile government shut-down Jose Garcia Dec 19 #5
This new "if we stop testing for Covid, there will be fewer reported cases," just dropped: LetMyPeopleVote Dec 19 #6
To have such absurd non calculations UpInArms Dec 19 #7

gab13by13

(31,198 posts)
1. Here is a good tell about the CPI numbers
Fri Dec 19, 2025, 10:08 AM
Dec 19

Look at how the bond market reacts to the reports. The stock market just wants an excuse to invest.

edhopper

(37,058 posts)
2. The stock market will be untethered to the Economy
Fri Dec 19, 2025, 10:13 AM
Dec 19

until the Economy bites it on the ass.

Wiz Imp

(8,930 posts)
4. I'm sure this will generate numerous posts about Tump "fudging" the numbers.
Fri Dec 19, 2025, 10:43 AM
Dec 19

To be clear, that is not happening here. This issue is a byproduct of not being able to collect any data for a month and a half. Given that CPI data measures prices at a specific point in time every month, it is not possible to go backward and collect accurate data after the fact.

In addition, we already know that the huge exodous of Federal employees in february and March have caused staff shortages at BLS that mean they cannot collect the full range of data od prices that they normally have in the past.

These factors have combined to make the data likely less reliable, but it is still honest data being produced by career civil servants with the best tools they have available. I hope people will refrain from saying things like "all data from Trump is bullshit". Staements like those only make the person saying them look stupid while unfairly disparaging honest hard working civil servants at BLS. (Sadly, I'm sure we will have plenty of people here who are sure they know better.)

LetMyPeopleVote

(174,893 posts)
6. This new "if we stop testing for Covid, there will be fewer reported cases," just dropped:
Fri Dec 19, 2025, 06:09 PM
Dec 19

These numbers are cooked and no one can rely on these numbers



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