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Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsNY Fed President Williams says some 'technical factors' distorted November's CPI reading downward
New York Federal Reserve President John Williams said Friday that technical factors likely distorted Novembers inflation data, pushing the headline reading lower than it otherwise would have been.
There were some special factors of practical factors that really are related to the fact that they werent able to collect date in October and not in the first half of November. And because of that, I think the data were distorted in some of the categories, and that pushed down the CPI reading, probably by a tenth or so, Williams said on CNBCs Squawk Box.
Because the October CPI release was canceled, Thursdays report lacked several of the standard data points typically included in a CPI report. The Bureau of Labor Statistics said it could not go back and collect October survey data, though it relied on nonsurvey data sources to construct the index.
As a result, economists may be cautious about interpreting the report as clear evidence that inflation is on a sustained downward path, given the absence of an October comparison. Economists believe some some inputs to the owners equivalent rent calculation for the canceled October month were estimated by the BLS to have zero inflation, distorting that calculation downward.
More at:
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/12/19/ny-fed-president-williams-says-some-technical-factors-distorted-novembers-cpi-reading-downward.html
gab13by13
(31,198 posts)Look at how the bond market reacts to the reports. The stock market just wants an excuse to invest.
edhopper
(37,058 posts)until the Economy bites it on the ass.
Prairie Gates
(7,181 posts)Wiz Imp
(8,930 posts)To be clear, that is not happening here. This issue is a byproduct of not being able to collect any data for a month and a half. Given that CPI data measures prices at a specific point in time every month, it is not possible to go backward and collect accurate data after the fact.
In addition, we already know that the huge exodous of Federal employees in february and March have caused staff shortages at BLS that mean they cannot collect the full range of data od prices that they normally have in the past.
These factors have combined to make the data likely less reliable, but it is still honest data being produced by career civil servants with the best tools they have available. I hope people will refrain from saying things like "all data from Trump is bullshit". Staements like those only make the person saying them look stupid while unfairly disparaging honest hard working civil servants at BLS. (Sadly, I'm sure we will have plenty of people here who are sure they know better.)
Jose Garcia
(3,427 posts)LetMyPeopleVote
(174,893 posts)UpInArms
(54,051 posts)Be reported is abysmal
