A record 177.1 million tons of soybeans are expected to be collected in the harvest that starts early in 2026, Brazil’s crop agency Conab said Thursday — a minor cut from previous estimates and still a 3.3% boost from last year. That raises the possibility of an escalating oversupply problem that pushes global prices lower.

“We’re growing at a scale that’s greater than demand,” said Thiago Facco, vice president of producers’ group Aprosoja Tocantins. He said that while output this year will fit the market’s needs well, “in a very near future we will have excess production.”

The situation threatens to intensify pressure across a market already rattled by fragile geopolitics. Trump is pressing Beijing to purchase more soybeans, even as China has spent years shifting purchases toward South America. If Brazil floods the market with even cheaper supplies, U.S. farmers could face sharper competition.