NYT - A Famed Iowa Pollster’s Career Ends With a ‘Spectacular Miss’ and a Trump Lawsuit (free link)

Known for her “gold standard” polls of Iowans, J. Ann Selzer is facing retribution from Donald Trump after her final 2024 survey showed a surprising, and ultimately wrong, winner.



By Jonathan Weisman
Dec. 19, 2024
Updated 11:19 a.m. ET

The surveys of J. Ann Selzer once carried the hopes and fears of the men and women who sought to lead the nation, recording with uncanny accuracy the views of Iowa voters who exercised outsize influence in the choosing of American presidents.

Now just weeks into her retirement, Ms. Selzer represents something unexpected: fears for how retribution could shape a second Trump term.

Rather than for her successes, Ms. Selzer, the longtime director of a survey known simply as the Iowa Poll, is being pilloried for one last, spectacular miss — findings released on Nov. 2 that showed Vice President Kamala Harris ahead of Donald J. Trump in deep-red Iowa in the 2024 presidential election, raising the specter of an avalanche of unanticipated support from America’s women.

That poll is the subject of a lawsuit filed in Polk County, Iowa, this week by Mr. Trump’s lawyers against Ms. Selzer, her polling firm and her employers, The Des Moines Register and its parent, Gannett, in what media lawyers see as a blatant effort to intimidate both the press and pollsters weeks before his inauguration.

It’s unclear whether Ms. Selzer will be on her own in bearing the cost of her defense. A spokeswoman for Gannett, which has called the lawsuit meritless, declined to comment on whether the company or the paper would shoulder those costs. Ms. Selzer declined to comment, remarking, “Right now, I’m focused on getting proper legal representation.”

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