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Nevilledog

(53,350 posts) Thu Dec 19, 2024, 11:59 AM Dec 19

Judd Legum: Lies, damn lies, and shoplifting statistics

https://popular.info/p/lies-damn-lies-and-shoplifting-statistics

For 32 years, the National Retail Federation (NRF) — the lobbying group representing major retailers in the United States — has produced the "National Retail Security Survey." The survey, widely cited by media outlets, attempts to estimate the total retail "shrink" in the industry by collecting data from major retailers.

Shrink is an industry term for merchandise that cannot be sold because it is misplaced, spoiled, or stolen. Historically "external theft," commonly known as shoplifting, has accounted for approximately one-third of total shrink. Around two-thirds of shrink is attributable to internal theft by employees, inventory control failures, and other issues.

But this year, the NRF announced it would not release its annual survey. What happened?

Mary McGinty, NRF vice president of communications and public affairs, claims that "a broad study about retail shrink is no longer sufficient for capturing the key challenges and needs of the industry." In other words, the survey did not reinforce the industry's preferred narrative that shoplifting is a growing problem that demands an aggressive state and federal response.

The 2023 release, which covers data from retailers about 2022, found that total shrink in the industry amounted to 1.6% of sales. 36% of that shrink was attributable to external theft or shoplifting. That is identical to the total shrink in the industry the survey found in 2019. The survey has found shrink has been at roughly the same levels for decades. In 2011, for example, the survey found shrink amounted to 1.5% of total retail sales. In 2005, it was 1.6%. The percentage of shrink due to shoplifting has also remained steady.

*snip*

10 replies

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Highlight:

Judd Legum: Lies, damn lies, and shoplifting statistics (Original Post) Nevilledog Dec 19 OP

I worked at Sears for 4 years when I was in college. Phoenix61 Dec 19 #1

Except as the full article points out, there hasn't been an increase in shoplifting. Think. Again. Dec 19 #3

College was 1980-1984, quite a while ago. Phoenix61 Dec 19 #8

Yes, but it hasn't gone up recently.... Think. Again. Dec 19 #10

In addition to promoting the anti-theft company that sponsor this questionable report... Think. Again. Dec 19 #2

Why are retailers locking up toothpaste and tide pods? Mosby Dec 19 #5

Theft has not increased for decades... Think. Again. Dec 19 #6

The reports are wrong, that's why they are discontinued. Mosby Dec 19 #7

The reports were discontinued because the data hasn't changed in decades. Think. Again. Dec 19 #9

When employees are underpaid, shrink increases Maeve Dec 19 #4

Phoenix61

(17,725 posts)

1. I worked at Sears for 4 years when I was in college.

Reply to Nevilledog (Original post)

Thu Dec 19, 2024, 12:13 PM

Dec 19

When I started every department had their own cash register and employees. There was ALWAYS at least one person on the floor and often more. Then they decided to compete with K-Mart and moved the cash registers for multiple department to a center aisle. Employees were no longer in the departments and shoplifting surged. We told them it would but who listens to employees. If retailers want to reduce shoplifting the solution is simple, have more employees throughout the store but they’d rather bitch about shoplifting than pay people.

Think. Again.

(19,120 posts)

3. Except as the full article points out, there hasn't been an increase in shoplifting.

Reply to Phoenix61 (Reply #1)

Thu Dec 19, 2024, 12:57 PM

Dec 19

Phoenix61

(17,725 posts)

8. College was 1980-1984, quite a while ago.

Reply to Think. Again. (Reply #3)

Thu Dec 19, 2024, 01:20 PM

Dec 19

And shoplifting, in the case I wrote about, definitely went up.

Think. Again.

(19,120 posts)

10. Yes, but it hasn't gone up recently....

Reply to Phoenix61 (Reply #8)

Thu Dec 19, 2024, 01:30 PM

Dec 19

"The Council on Criminal Justice (CCJ), a non-partisan think tank, found that the shoplifting rate in 2023 was 10% lower than in 2019. The CCJ's data is consistent with data collected from police departments by the Real Time Crime Index, which shows theft (which includes shoplifting and other property crimes) in 2023 was below 2019 levels. FBI data also shows property crime decreasing between 2019 and 2023." -from the full article

Think. Again.

(19,120 posts)

2. In addition to promoting the anti-theft company that sponsor this questionable report...

Reply to Nevilledog (Original post)

Thu Dec 19, 2024, 12:55 PM

Dec 19

...the false narrative of increased shoplifting gives retailers a publicly acceptable, though false, justification to raise prices.

Mosby

(17,647 posts)

5. Why are retailers locking up toothpaste and tide pods?

Reply to Think. Again. (Reply #2)

Thu Dec 19, 2024, 01:10 PM

Dec 19

The reality of the situation can't be found in "reports". Just go in the stores. I was just in Target, why are socks and underware locked up? It's killing their sales. The reality is theft is out of control. But hey, don't believe it, when the retailers are gone you can blame Amazon I guess.

Think. Again.

(19,120 posts)

6. Theft has not increased for decades...

Reply to Mosby (Reply #5)

Thu Dec 19, 2024, 01:16 PM

Dec 19

"The 2023 release, which covers data from retailers about 2022, found that total shrink in the industry amounted to 1.6% of sales. 36% of that shrink was attributable to external theft or shoplifting. That is identical to the total shrink in the industry the survey found in 2019. The survey has found shrink has been at roughly the same levels for decades. In 2011, for example, the survey found shrink amounted to 1.5% of total retail sales. In 2005, it was 1.6%. The percentage of shrink due to shoplifting has also remained steady." -from the article

I guess they lock up merchandise due to hiring less employees on the floor.

Mosby

(17,647 posts)

7. The reports are wrong, that's why they are discontinued.

Reply to Think. Again. (Reply #6)

Thu Dec 19, 2024, 01:19 PM

Dec 19

Again, go into Target or Walmart and ask yourself why shit is locked up. The truth is staring you in the face.

Moreover, the locked up sections require MORE staff, again, GO TO THE STORE.

Think. Again.

(19,120 posts)

9. The reports were discontinued because the data hasn't changed in decades.

Reply to Mosby (Reply #7)

Thu Dec 19, 2024, 01:26 PM

Dec 19

Maeve

(43,046 posts)

4. When employees are underpaid, shrink increases

Reply to Nevilledog (Original post)

Thu Dec 19, 2024, 01:06 PM

Dec 19

Same goes when stores are understaffed. And yeah, it isn't customers shoplifting
But, hey, businesses gotta make money for investors in the short run, not last forever, right?

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