Welcome to DU! The truly grassroots left-of-center political community where regular people, not algorithms, drive the discussions and set the standards. Join the community: Create a free account Support DU (and get rid of ads!): Become a Star Member Latest Breaking News Editorials & Other Articles General Discussion The DU Lounge All Forums Issue Forums Culture Forums Alliance Forums Region Forums Support Forums Help & Search

NJCher

(38,242 posts)
Tue Dec 17, 2024, 11:21 PM Dec 17

Smart Elections Report on Drop-Off Ballots Just Released!

Last edited Tue Dec 17, 2024, 11:57 PM - Edit history (1)

Quite frankly, there was so much juicy stuff to snip I had a problem deciding where to take my excerpt.

You will not knock this off in one night. This is some heavy duty reading.

Methodology is discussed and there are plenty of charts and graphs to help you visually understand. It's an amaziing job: one that supports suspicions that this election may have been manipulated.

Smart Elections wants us to share this report, so if you read it and it makes sense to you, feel free to send this link far and wide.

https://smartelections.substack.com/p/the-press-release?r=em94l&utm_medium=ios&triedRedirect=true

snip

Republicans have also taken note of the drop-off figures, wondering conversely why the large Republican vote for president is somehow not reflected in their Senate and other down-ballot races.

Number of Votes Involved is Larger Than Margin of Victory
The number of votes contained in these drop-off margins are startling. In five of the six swing states that are included in the analysis, the margin of drop-off votes is greater than the margin of victory.

Arizona

Drop-off margin = 267,956

Margin of victory = 187,382

Drop-off is 80,574 votes more than the margin of victory

Michigan

Drop-off margin = 99,109

Margin of victory = 80,103

Drop-off is 19,006 votes more than the margin of victory

Nevada

Drop-off margin = 70,067

Margin of victory = 46,008

Drop-off is 24,059 votes more than the margin of victory

North Carolina

Drop-off margin = 341,949

Margin of victory = 183,047

Drop-off is 158,902 votes more than the margin of victory

Wisconsin

Drop-off margin = 58,178

Margin of victory = 29,397

Drop-off is 28,781 votes more than the margin of victory

Snip

140 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
Highlight: NoneDon't highlight anything 5 newestHighlight 5 most recent replies
Smart Elections Report on Drop-Off Ballots Just Released! (Original Post) NJCher Dec 17 OP
Bring the smelling salts! I feel faint! dchill Dec 17 #1
This message was self-deleted by its author Chin music Dec 17 #2
The Electoral College finished the count yesterday Polybius Dec 18 #7
This message was self-deleted by its author Chin music Dec 18 #21
This message was self-deleted by its author Chin music Dec 18 #23
I did see number 3 Polybius Dec 18 #39
This message was self-deleted by its author Chin music Dec 18 #42
I'm sorry Polybius Dec 18 #44
How would immunity give him the power to force recounts? FBaggins Dec 18 #25
Which laws would you like Joe to violate? tritsofme Dec 18 #110
This message was self-deleted by its author Chin music Dec 18 #116
You said you want Joe to "use" his immunity. The only way to do that is to violate federal laws tritsofme Dec 18 #118
This message was self-deleted by its author Chin music Dec 18 #119
Let the Putin/Musk et al investigations begin NJCher Dec 17 #3
This message was self-deleted by its author Chin music Dec 18 #22
But what about hard evidence? Polybius Dec 18 #38
Begin BoRaGard Dec 19 #140
From article: dchill Dec 17 #4
K&r questionseverything Dec 18 #5
All of what you posted required physical access to the server Abnredleg Dec 18 #47
You need to show how it COULDN'T have happened. dchill Dec 18 #62
No - I don't have the burden of proof Abnredleg Dec 18 #66
Neither do I. dchill Dec 18 #67
On the Internet that is true Abnredleg Dec 18 #70
DU is not a fucking court of law. dchill Dec 18 #72
I didn't say it was Abnredleg Dec 18 #73
This message was self-deleted by its author Chin music Dec 18 #95
This message was self-deleted by its author Chin music Dec 18 #94
This message was self-deleted by its author Chin music Dec 18 #93
Actually it's only the reporting page a " hacker" would have to breach questionseverything Dec 18 #84
No Abnredleg Dec 18 #86
You are 2 funny, like you personally oversee every reporting page in the nation questionseverything Dec 18 #89
Vote counting is done with bipartisan observers Abnredleg Dec 18 #90
This message was self-deleted by its author Chin music Dec 18 #100
This message was self-deleted by its author Chin music Dec 18 #96
Kick. Rec. Bookmark. Hekate Dec 18 #6
Everyone who is still suffering from total disbelief that this could have possibly happened for real BComplex Dec 18 #8
Then why didn't the Democratic Party counter this? Where arthritisR_US Dec 18 #14
Marc Elias KNOWS how it was stolen, but his law firm is putting out a million fires. It's up to the Democratic party BComplex Dec 18 #30
This message was self-deleted by its author Chin music Dec 18 #36
I'm not sure I understand the point of spreading misinformation about Marc. He's never embraced these denialist tritsofme Dec 18 #109
He most certainly has discussed the many ways in which the republicans stole the election. BComplex Dec 18 #121
Feel free to post a link. He's certainly never endorsed the sort of conspiracy theories in the OP. tritsofme Dec 18 #126
So your theory is the guy famous for fighting for voter rights EdmondDantes_ Dec 18 #125
Are you all ok with this and going to let it stand? arthritisR_US Dec 18 #15
I have written to all the top democrats and insisted that a formal and forensic audit should be done BComplex Dec 18 #31
Very true, but it's frustrating beyond the pale what he's got arthritisR_US Dec 18 #46
Audits are done as part of certification Abnredleg Dec 18 #48
Ok, I am seriously disturbed by this. REALLY fucking disturbed. I trust every poster in this thread (here is a current Celerity Dec 18 #9
Looks like evidence of votes not being counted and called questionseverything Dec 18 #17
Bullet ballot voting was within historical norms Abnredleg Dec 18 #49
These rates in the OP for Trump dropoff are vastly higher than what your link shows. Celerity Dec 18 #54
The OP is breaking votes out by party Abnredleg Dec 18 #59
I am not satisfied it is simply due to party break-out. Those Trump drop off rates are crazy high, certainly not within Celerity Dec 18 #124
This message was self-deleted by its author Chin music Dec 18 #97
so is the takeaway that votes were taken from Harris somehow in these states? (nt) cadoman Dec 18 #10
The numbers do not rule that out. dchill Dec 18 #13
is a statistical abnormality evidence of fraud? tfg claimed the same cadoman Dec 18 #29
If that argument is logical to you NJCher Dec 18 #33
This message was self-deleted by its author Chin music Dec 18 #37
The difference is Georgia was hand counted so we had some physical proof tfg lost questionseverything Dec 18 #107
The voting machines were secure when that guy was in charge of the election in 2020. Trump fired him before BComplex Dec 18 #58
Wisconsin would need less than 9 votes per precinct to change result questionseverything Dec 18 #18
No Abnredleg Dec 18 #60
Thank you! Bookmarked to read tomorrow. Silver Gaia Dec 18 #11
Why wasn't this information out there the day after the election? arthritisR_US Dec 18 #12
The official numbers don't come out right away questionseverything Dec 18 #19
A timely manner? You have an autocratic coming into office arthritisR_US Dec 18 #20
I just mean they did a huge amount of work quickly questionseverything Dec 18 #24
It was Abnredleg Dec 18 #50
Aside keepthemhonestO Dec 18 #104
I don't see any sign anyone in the party is going to do anything Meowmee Dec 18 #16
"I don't need your votes. I have enough votes. You'll never have to vote again." Uh huh. Scrivener7 Dec 18 #26
And by accusing democrats of programming the voting machines to count extra votes for Biden, he has admitted BComplex Dec 18 #32
This message was self-deleted by its author Chin music Dec 18 #40
This is the debunked bullet ballot argument Abnredleg Dec 18 #52
This message was self-deleted by its author Chin music Dec 18 #80
"just" calling it NJCher Dec 18 #81
I show up with the same argument that Harris and the Democtratic Party makes Abnredleg Dec 18 #85
This message was self-deleted by its author Chin music Dec 18 #92
Definition of a fair election NJCher Dec 18 #98
This message was self-deleted by its author Chin music Dec 18 #99
This message was self-deleted by its author Chin music Dec 18 #91
Or this. Musk's 5yo tells us what his dad is doing Babajida Dec 19 #127
Leads me to wonder if there is a "Deeper State" outside the State bucolic_frolic Dec 18 #27
Would it be rude to say "Duh?" dchill Dec 18 #61
Yes but such an entity has never been specified bucolic_frolic Dec 18 #69
What happens if this is proved beyond all doubt... MiHale Dec 18 #28
This message was self-deleted by its author Chin music Dec 18 #41
Why do you suppose all of those parties are silent and not championing these ridiculous conspiracy theories? tritsofme Dec 18 #113
This message was self-deleted by its author Chin music Dec 18 #115
This message was self-deleted by its author Chin music Dec 18 #120
It's pretty simple. They are not gullible enough to fall for silly conspiracy theories. tritsofme Dec 19 #131
This message was self-deleted by its author Chin music Dec 19 #135
You asked why actual credible parties are not seeking "injunctive relief" tritsofme Dec 19 #136
What is a "drop-off" vote, Pew Research says they're people who don't vote consistently in every election I'm thinking uponit7771 Dec 18 #34
It's the difference between votes for President and down ballot races Abnredleg Dec 18 #43
Ah, ... I heard they were called bullet ballots uponit7771 Dec 18 #55
They've repackaged the bullet ballot argument /NT Abnredleg Dec 18 #57
What they are saying is the senate race had many more votes than the presidential race questionseverything Dec 18 #83
They only came to that conclusion because they ignored the idea that split ticket voting occurs MichMan Dec 18 #102
Ok, this is a data point FHRRK Dec 18 #35
I don't understand this... LeftInTX Dec 18 #45
It's undervoting Abnredleg Dec 18 #53
Oh........ LeftInTX Dec 18 #56
You said, as you go down the list there are more undervotes questionseverything Dec 18 #87
Which 4 states are you referring to? MichMan Dec 18 #103
You need to read the material you are disputing questionseverything Dec 18 #106
Which is a completely disingenuous analysis that proves absolutely nothing MichMan Dec 18 #108
We are free to disagree questionseverything Dec 18 #112
All I want for Christmas is the DoJ to investigate this. redqueen Dec 18 #51
This message was self-deleted by its author Chin music Dec 18 #63
"What part of the spectrum of Ds does that originate from?" Sympthsical Dec 18 #65
This message was self-deleted by its author Chin music Dec 18 #75
If reality feels mean, I don't know what to tell you Sympthsical Dec 18 #78
This message was self-deleted by its author Chin music Dec 18 #79
I think it would be nice if NJCher Dec 18 #82
This message was self-deleted by its author Chin music Dec 18 #88
It's the chicken wire and charcoal fluid of statistics Sympthsical Dec 18 #117
Agreed DET Dec 18 #76
This message was self-deleted by its author Chin music Dec 18 #77
I agree keepthemhonestO Dec 18 #105
Numbers they provide don't make any sense when compared with actual state results MichMan Dec 18 #64
They cherry-picked to maximize suspicion Sympthsical Dec 18 #68
Sorry, I don't admire anyone who manipulates and misrepresents data to fit their agenda and rile up gullible people MichMan Dec 18 #71
I meant I admire your attempt Sympthsical Dec 18 #74
Of course the election results were manipulated. SheltieLover Dec 18 #101
I won't say they were obviously manipulated but questionseverything Dec 18 #111
I'm definitely convinced SheltieLover Dec 19 #133
I agree it certainly looks like it was stolen and I agree it's past time for hand counts questionseverything Dec 19 #137
That was the exact argument Trumpers made four years ago. It's not any stronger today. tritsofme Dec 19 #132
Don't underestimate the number of gullible people out there MichMan Dec 18 #114
Duck Typing Metaphorical Dec 18 #122
This message was self-deleted by its author Chin music Dec 18 #123
Shitler kept insisting that the election was stolen from him. love_katz Dec 19 #128
This message was self-deleted by its author Chin music Dec 19 #130
This message was self-deleted by its author Chin music Dec 19 #138
What is disheartening Babajida Dec 19 #129
What would you like Democrats to fight against? Reality? tritsofme Dec 19 #134
This message was self-deleted by its author Chin music Dec 19 #139

Response to NJCher (Original post)

Response to Polybius (Reply #7)

Response to Polybius (Reply #7)

Response to Polybius (Reply #39)

Polybius

(18,376 posts)
44. I'm sorry
Wed Dec 18, 2024, 11:52 AM
Dec 18
I realize these kinds of posts to me are important to you.

But, I'm not in the mood. And don't forsee being in the mood w you in the future.
My gift to myself is putting you on ignore.


I truly didn't mean it in any way to be offensive. I just wanted to see if there was proof before I got my hopes up, and I know you are very informative. Merry Christmas. I will never put you on ignore because I enjoy your posts.

FBaggins

(27,803 posts)
25. How would immunity give him the power to force recounts?
Wed Dec 18, 2024, 06:46 AM
Dec 18

They’re controlled by state law.

Response to tritsofme (Reply #110)

tritsofme

(18,711 posts)
118. You said you want Joe to "use" his immunity. The only way to do that is to violate federal laws
Wed Dec 18, 2024, 09:57 PM
Dec 18

that he might otherwise be at risk of prosecution. So which laws do you want him to violate?

If it was just an empty slogan not meant to be taken seriously, my bad.

Response to tritsofme (Reply #118)

NJCher

(38,242 posts)
3. Let the Putin/Musk et al investigations begin
Tue Dec 17, 2024, 11:35 PM
Dec 17

Some of them couldn't start until the election was certified, as I understand it.

Executive Order 13848: Governs intelligence community assessments of foreign interference after the election is concluded i.e., after December 17th, 2024).

DOJ investigations can begin anytime credible evidence arises, even before the Electoral College meeting election certification. Consequently, DOJ is not necessarily tied to EO 13848 timelines.

The DOJ can and does investigate election interference or related crimes before December 17th. Its authority is based on federal laws and is independent of the timeline set by EO 13848, which pertains to intelligence assessments of foreign interference.

If anyone has a different interpretation than this, please post it.

Response to NJCher (Reply #3)

dchill

(40,769 posts)
4. From article:
Tue Dec 17, 2024, 11:41 PM
Dec 17
On November 18th, @RedBear331 with the handle “Hacking Democracy” makes multiple claims of accessing voting machine totals:

“What did we do? Added, switched, & deleted votes with SQL. No logs. No trails. Democracy? More like democracy, unplugged.”

“🚨 SQL Democracy – Mission Accomplished 🚨Democracy Suite EMS relies on duct tape & a backdoor password: "dvscorp08!" .This hardcoded "security" + SQL commands = Trump's victory. We started in AZ, GA, PA... but didn’t stop there.Your democracy is a house of cards. 🐻”

“SQL database from a local EMS system (now Patriot County). Hardcoded backdoor password: "dvscorp08!", still live in systems across the country. Default Super Admin account Detailed exploit guide to replicate our methods. Screenshots of tampered registries”


Abnredleg

(1,002 posts)
47. All of what you posted required physical access to the server
Wed Dec 18, 2024, 12:09 PM
Dec 18

You can usually compromise a server if you gain physical access. That’s why they are air gapped and kept under strict physical security. You need to show how thousands of servers in thousands of counties were compromised in order to show fraud, and no one has done this so far.

Abnredleg

(1,002 posts)
66. No - I don't have the burden of proof
Wed Dec 18, 2024, 01:58 PM
Dec 18

All the votes have been certified so anyone arguing fraud needs to present evidence. Assuming that the end game is to go to court and have the outcome overturned, you will have to prove that fraud occurred. The audit process that occurs during certification creates a legal assumption of legality, which then shifts the burden of proof to those challenging the results. This is a fundamental principle of our legal system.

Abnredleg

(1,002 posts)
70. On the Internet that is true
Wed Dec 18, 2024, 02:12 PM
Dec 18

But in a court of law you would have the burden. Given that the vote is certified, any argument for fraud requires proof, and the party making that argument has to show that proof, while the government’s claim of legality is presumed to be true.

Yes, you are free to make any claim you want, but that adds nothing to your ultimate goal of changing the outcome. Why should anyone accept your argument without evidence?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Burden_of_proof_(law)

Abnredleg

(1,002 posts)
73. I didn't say it was
Wed Dec 18, 2024, 02:25 PM
Dec 18

All I am saying is that those who are arguing fraud need to present to present evidence that stands up to scrutiny. These bullet ballot conspiracies fell apart quickly because all the arguments that were advanced were flawed.

There is a reason why the party moved on. They’ve looked at the data and found no evidence of fraud.

Response to dchill (Reply #72)

Response to dchill (Reply #67)

Response to dchill (Reply #62)

questionseverything

(10,299 posts)
84. Actually it's only the reporting page a " hacker" would have to breach
Wed Dec 18, 2024, 06:20 PM
Dec 18

And the feds have told us russia has been in our systems… heck in the last month we found out china has hacked everything the nsa has access to, which means everything

🤷‍♀️

Abnredleg

(1,002 posts)
86. No
Wed Dec 18, 2024, 06:27 PM
Dec 18

Ballots are counted at the county level and manually uploaded to the state system (the reporting page?). Any change to the totals at the state level are immediately apparent.

questionseverything

(10,299 posts)
89. You are 2 funny, like you personally oversee every reporting page in the nation
Wed Dec 18, 2024, 06:38 PM
Dec 18

And can swear by their accuracy

I think citizens have every right to, even an obligation to oversee the counting of votes, you seem to think we should simply “trust “ the huge corporations that produce the machines and software that reports the votes

Abnredleg

(1,002 posts)
90. Vote counting is done with bipartisan observers
Wed Dec 18, 2024, 06:45 PM
Dec 18

that are selected by the parties. The post elections audits? The ones that compare the hand count of paper ballots to tabulator counts? That is also conducted in the presence of citizen observers.

It's pointless to "hack" the reporting page because the counties still have the actual counts, and by counties I mean many citizens from both parties. I don't think people appreciate how many outside observers watch all aspects of the election.

Response to Abnredleg (Reply #90)

Response to questionseverything (Reply #89)

BComplex

(9,155 posts)
8. Everyone who is still suffering from total disbelief that this could have possibly happened for real
Wed Dec 18, 2024, 12:56 AM
Dec 18

knows that it was stolen. And stolen with it thrown in our faces.

Great post! Great thread!

BComplex

(9,155 posts)
30. Marc Elias KNOWS how it was stolen, but his law firm is putting out a million fires. It's up to the Democratic party
Wed Dec 18, 2024, 09:51 AM
Dec 18

to do the forensics and get it to court.

Response to BComplex (Reply #30)

tritsofme

(18,711 posts)
109. I'm not sure I understand the point of spreading misinformation about Marc. He's never embraced these denialist
Wed Dec 18, 2024, 08:35 PM
Dec 18

conspiracy theories.

BComplex

(9,155 posts)
121. He most certainly has discussed the many ways in which the republicans stole the election.
Wed Dec 18, 2024, 10:10 PM
Dec 18

On MSNBC, on the Meidas Touch videos...I can't think of now where else I've seen him talking about it!

tritsofme

(18,711 posts)
126. Feel free to post a link. He's certainly never endorsed the sort of conspiracy theories in the OP.
Wed Dec 18, 2024, 11:47 PM
Dec 18

EdmondDantes_

(116 posts)
125. So your theory is the guy famous for fighting for voter rights
Wed Dec 18, 2024, 10:50 PM
Dec 18

Is now just too busy to fight for voter rights or even mention it so someone else could fight? That's quite the theory.

BComplex

(9,155 posts)
31. I have written to all the top democrats and insisted that a formal and forensic audit should be done
Wed Dec 18, 2024, 09:52 AM
Dec 18

but it is up to the party to contest the election. Not me.

arthritisR_US

(7,632 posts)
46. Very true, but it's frustrating beyond the pale what he's got
Wed Dec 18, 2024, 12:07 PM
Dec 18

away with a the damage coming.

Abnredleg

(1,002 posts)
48. Audits are done as part of certification
Wed Dec 18, 2024, 12:11 PM
Dec 18

Nothing has shown up in the audits of the swing states, audits directed by Democrats.

Celerity

(46,866 posts)
9. Ok, I am seriously disturbed by this. REALLY fucking disturbed. I trust every poster in this thread (here is a current
Wed Dec 18, 2024, 01:26 AM
Dec 18

list as I type this):



I admire all of you as non game-players and all of you have good to great analytical skills.

So I want to ask all of you this.........

What the hell is going on with this????

Something looks AND feels VERY VERY wrong.

It seems like Trump had a shedload of 'single candidate picking' (ie voting for HIM only) votes added to the tallies in the key states.

WTF

I will admit it is 7 25 am here, and I am exhausted from working all night from my home office.





questionseverything

(10,299 posts)
17. Looks like evidence of votes not being counted and called
Wed Dec 18, 2024, 02:36 AM
Dec 18

Or

Voters acting in different patterns than we ever see, usually the presidential race is top vote getter but it’s not being reported that way



I am always a show me person….hand count the paper ballots, then we will know

Celerity

(46,866 posts)
54. These rates in the OP for Trump dropoff are vastly higher than what your link shows.
Wed Dec 18, 2024, 12:24 PM
Dec 18

Please explain.

Abnredleg

(1,002 posts)
59. The OP is breaking votes out by party
Wed Dec 18, 2024, 12:59 PM
Dec 18

Which ignores the effects of vote splitting. The data I presented is the difference between all presidential votes and the next down ballot election (typically the senate race). That is a better way to analyze bullet ballots because you can better account for vote splitting. When you do it this way, the number of ballots with only a vote for president in 2024 wasn’t that unusual.

In short, the numbers are different because they were calculated differently.

Celerity

(46,866 posts)
124. I am not satisfied it is simply due to party break-out. Those Trump drop off rates are crazy high, certainly not within
Wed Dec 18, 2024, 10:44 PM
Dec 18

historical norms whether you take it was a whole (ie combining the 2 major party POTUS candidates) or doing the party break-outs and comparing one party's drop-off rates on a historical basis to that same one party's drop-off rates in the past.

Response to Celerity (Reply #54)

dchill

(40,769 posts)
13. The numbers do not rule that out.
Wed Dec 18, 2024, 01:58 AM
Dec 18

The voting machines are not secure. They've not ever been secure.

cadoman

(972 posts)
29. is a statistical abnormality evidence of fraud? tfg claimed the same
Wed Dec 18, 2024, 08:28 AM
Dec 18

And never provided evidence to substantiate it. He lost literally all the cases he brought (most of the time with judges laughing as the cases were so stupid and unsubstantiated).

I understand we have downballot abnormalities here, but isn't the logical explanation that tRump outperformed the local candidates through Youtube buffoonery, hate rhetoric, systemic misogyny & racism, etc.? He inculcated Christofascism into an entire generation of Black and Hispanic men. Harris also battled the fact that she had an unusually short runway from which to take off.

No system is 100% secure, but what evidence is being shown here that the machines were compromised? And how would that be pulled off with the hard work of our Secretaries of State who have signaled consistency that they are confident in their Dominion and ESS systems?

Response to NJCher (Reply #33)

BComplex

(9,155 posts)
58. The voting machines were secure when that guy was in charge of the election in 2020. Trump fired him before
Wed Dec 18, 2024, 12:55 PM
Dec 18

he left office.
I can't remember the guy's name, but he was on top of every piece of the election at the time.

keepthemhonestO

(458 posts)
104. Aside
Wed Dec 18, 2024, 07:58 PM
Dec 18

From the counting took two weeks, a large team of people gave been working on this nonstop since the election.

Meowmee

(6,127 posts)
16. I don't see any sign anyone in the party is going to do anything
Wed Dec 18, 2024, 02:35 AM
Dec 18

to even investigate this. I can't seem to see her page or follow it even though I signed up a while back at Substack. It seems to have to send me a link each time to sign in which is tedious.

Scrivener7

(53,211 posts)
26. "I don't need your votes. I have enough votes. You'll never have to vote again." Uh huh.
Wed Dec 18, 2024, 06:56 AM
Dec 18

He ALWAYS tells us what he's doing.

BComplex

(9,155 posts)
32. And by accusing democrats of programming the voting machines to count extra votes for Biden, he has admitted
Wed Dec 18, 2024, 09:55 AM
Dec 18

what they did. AND he had Elon Musk and a huge handful of Silicon Valley billionaires to help him with the programming.

Response to BComplex (Reply #32)

Response to Abnredleg (Reply #52)

NJCher

(38,242 posts)
81. "just" calling it
Wed Dec 18, 2024, 05:36 PM
Dec 18

I daresay there are more than a few differences in the link you cite and work released by Smart Elections.

One is a blog post that somebody spent maybe four hours on. This person even takes pride in the fact that he is a little on the shady side. Look at his self-description: among other self descriptors, he calls himself an "unethical coder."

The other is an indepth study with charts, graphs, and giving other options for what happened besides election fraud. Who knows the hundreds of person-hours it took to put it together. It took a vast amount of cooperation and work among a team of people, not just one guy slinging off a post on his blog.

I mean, come on. Be fair. You show up to every one of these posts with the same stubborn argument.

If you've made up your mind, move on. No "there" there for you? Great. Find another topic in which to delve. In my mind anyone who sticks around with the same old tired argument is there to discourage people. Someone with this pattern of behavior is not acting in good faith and very possibly could be here here to undermine discussion.

Abnredleg

(1,002 posts)
85. I show up with the same argument that Harris and the Democtratic Party makes
Wed Dec 18, 2024, 06:25 PM
Dec 18

Which is that it was a fair election. As to my motivations, I saw what MAGA did in 2020 and I am seeing the same pattern here. What you and others are doing is spread conspiracy theories, nothing more and nothing less. I look at all this with my years of government IT and the holes in the argument are so glaring that I have a hard time believing people can actually believe in them. Fortunately, the CT pushers are a small minority. What you are doing is bad for the Party and democracy, so of course I'm going to discourage anyone from discussing it. If anyone's motives are to be questioned, it is those who keep pushing these warmed over CT instead of accepting reality and moving on to positive actions that help us in 2028.

It's time to move on.

Response to Abnredleg (Reply #85)

NJCher

(38,242 posts)
98. Definition of a fair election
Wed Dec 18, 2024, 07:17 PM
Dec 18

An election with Putin/Musk influence is a "fair" election?

Was it:

"Heavy duty reading?" Is that a conspiracy theory? I guess in your mind presenting a piece for people to read is a conspiracy. That must be it! That's the ticket.

How about "methodology is discussed." I see big dangers in people looking at the methodology of a study, and obviously you do, too!

Certainly "share this report" is conspiracy talk. Deep, dark, dangerous. Oooooh!

-------------

Please tell me how "years in government IT" helps you understand anything that has to do with social psychology, communication, cultural anthropology. History. Government. Civics. Communication, and in particular propaganda, disinformation, and misinformation. Law.

I'm sincerely interested in your answer. I am not trying to bait you. I'll check back for your answer.

Response to NJCher (Reply #98)

Response to NJCher (Reply #81)

bucolic_frolic

(47,615 posts)
27. Leads me to wonder if there is a "Deeper State" outside the State
Wed Dec 18, 2024, 07:06 AM
Dec 18

Some phalanx operating for private interests against law and Constitution.

bucolic_frolic

(47,615 posts)
69. Yes but such an entity has never been specified
Wed Dec 18, 2024, 02:10 PM
Dec 18

Even here we have statistics. Put some people and organizations to it. Somebody you can investigate and arrest. Meat and potatoes.

MiHale

(10,896 posts)
28. What happens if this is proved beyond all doubt...
Wed Dec 18, 2024, 08:12 AM
Dec 18

to be a fraudulent election? Does the country have a reelection? Do any of the votes count? If proven before the Inauguration, does Biden remain in office till it’s sorted out? If proven after the Inauguration does t**** stay in office? If not, how removed? Who or what would replace him?

In my opinion…we will never have to ask these questions.

Response to MiHale (Reply #28)

tritsofme

(18,711 posts)
113. Why do you suppose all of those parties are silent and not championing these ridiculous conspiracy theories?
Wed Dec 18, 2024, 08:44 PM
Dec 18
Mark Elias? Federal Attys? ACLU? SPLC?


Are they complicit? Or are they just dumber than random internet people pushing baseless conspiracy theories?

Response to tritsofme (Reply #113)

Response to tritsofme (Reply #113)

Response to tritsofme (Reply #131)

tritsofme

(18,711 posts)
136. You asked why actual credible parties are not seeking "injunctive relief"
Thu Dec 19, 2024, 11:46 AM
Dec 19

It’s because they are not gullible enough to fall for and waste time on silly conspiracy theories. That’s it, that’s all.

I’m sorry reality makes you yawn, fantasy can certainly be more exciting.

uponit7771

(92,027 posts)
34. What is a "drop-off" vote, Pew Research says they're people who don't vote consistently in every election I'm thinking
Wed Dec 18, 2024, 10:48 AM
Dec 18

.... this link has defined that term as something different

Abnredleg

(1,002 posts)
43. It's the difference between votes for President and down ballot races
Wed Dec 18, 2024, 11:52 AM
Dec 18

That’s how the article defines it.

questionseverything

(10,299 posts)
83. What they are saying is the senate race had many more votes than the presidential race
Wed Dec 18, 2024, 06:16 PM
Dec 18

That is something very rarely seen, usually the top vote getter is the presidential race

There’s a lot more in the article than that but even a drop off like that should be investigated

MichMan

(13,562 posts)
102. They only came to that conclusion because they ignored the idea that split ticket voting occurs
Wed Dec 18, 2024, 07:51 PM
Dec 18

What state(s) had more total votes for Senate than President ?

https://www.reuters.com/graphics/USA-ELECTION/RESULTS/zjpqnemxwvx/president/

FHRRK

(981 posts)
35. Ok, this is a data point
Wed Dec 18, 2024, 10:55 AM
Dec 18

The next logical question, what type of difference did we see in 16 and 20? Including the other side, votes for Clinton, Biden, Harris only.

LeftInTX

(30,633 posts)
45. I don't understand this...
Wed Dec 18, 2024, 12:06 PM
Dec 18

What is a "drop-off vote"?

There is an official term when someone leaves a race blank and it is called an "undervote". Is that what they're talking about? Or is it party switch?

In our county in 2020, we had MORE undervotes for senator, than we did in 2024. In 2020, we had 20,383. In 2024, we had 18,327.

Those undervotes are always, statistically significant. But it doesn't mean that anything nefarious happened.

Further down the ballot, the number of undervotes grows even larger. People just show up and vote for president and don't vote for other races. Without a definition of "drop-off" votes, I don't know what is happening. Colin Allred did better than Kamala Harris in Texas. However, we don't know if it is because of "undervotes" or because voters who cast ballots in both races decided they preferred Allred and they didn't support Harris. There were also significant votes for a Libertarian candidate for US Senate. Libertarian takes votes from the GOP. In 2020, there was also a stronger Libertarian candidate for president that got 8,837 votes. In 2020, the Libertarian took votes from Trump. In 2024, the Libertarian candidate was an unknown and only got 4,310 votes. In 2020, Jill Stein did not run and the Green Party candidate got 2,798 votes. In 2024, we had 4,303 votes for Jill Stein. Third party candidates siphon votes: A strong Libertarian will take from the GOP. A Green Party candidate will take from the Democrats.

Is a "drop-off vote" an undervote? Do they know the correct term?

I'm confused.

Abnredleg

(1,002 posts)
53. It's undervoting
Wed Dec 18, 2024, 12:20 PM
Dec 18

Don’t know why they call it a different term. It’s a repackage of the bullet ballot conspiracy that’s been floating around for awhile now.

questionseverything

(10,299 posts)
87. You said, as you go down the list there are more undervotes
Wed Dec 18, 2024, 06:29 PM
Dec 18

Which is almost always true

The point of these folks is the presidential race had way less votes than the senate in these four states than for president …. That’s the oddity

Download that article, there’s graph after graph showing it only happened in these couple really important states

MichMan

(13,562 posts)
103. Which 4 states are you referring to?
Wed Dec 18, 2024, 07:52 PM
Dec 18

Wasn't the case in Michigan, Ohio, Arizona, or Wisconsin. Not one of these states had more total votes for President than US Senate.

Michigan
President 5,638,701
Senate 5,567,193

Ohio
President 5,652,464
Senate 5,595,085

Arizona
President 3,389,319
Senate 3,347,964

Wisconsin
President 3,414,423
Senate 3,386,788

Here is a link to the data

https://www.bing.com/search?q=2024+us+election+results&form=ANNTH1&refig=1030b54a5cb24a1b80f1b7cdf85b4f89&pc=LCTS&pqlth=0&assgl=24&sgcn=2024+us+election+results&qs=HS&smvpcn=0&swbcn=10&sc=10-0&sp=1&ghc=0&cvid=1030b54a5cb24a1b80f1b7cdf85b4f89&clckatsg=1&hsmssg=0

questionseverything

(10,299 posts)
106. You need to read the material you are disputing
Wed Dec 18, 2024, 08:21 PM
Dec 18

I can’t explain better than they do but

They are comparing democratic candidates to democratic candidates

Then republicans to republicans

Where you are comparing combined totals

MichMan

(13,562 posts)
108. Which is a completely disingenuous analysis that proves absolutely nothing
Wed Dec 18, 2024, 08:32 PM
Dec 18

Under what circumstance would that be indicative of anything?

The OP is assuming that split ticket voting is prohibited in all states. Which of course it is not. Under no logical reason would someone perform an analysis with that methodology. It would appear that they intend to deceive the gullible

Looking at combined totals, which is the only way to determine the true number of "over votes" disproves their entire premise.

redqueen

(115,172 posts)
51. All I want for Christmas is the DoJ to investigate this.
Wed Dec 18, 2024, 12:17 PM
Dec 18

Based on previous experience it'd be a Christmas miracle.

Response to NJCher (Original post)

Sympthsical

(10,404 posts)
65. "What part of the spectrum of Ds does that originate from?"
Wed Dec 18, 2024, 01:52 PM
Dec 18

The reality-based community.

Some of us still take that identity seriously.

That's the problem with conspiracies - they give false hope. There's always some breaking information just around the corner. If we could just reach it, then everything we hope for will come to pass. And if we can't reach it, there is some dark force underlying all that is preventing us from reaching this golden promised land.

Real life just doesn't work that way. The only thing we can do is live in the world we're actually living in, assess the situation, and move forward in productive, reality-based ventures to change things.

Everything else is a distraction.

If people want to be distracted - right now, when events are as serious as they are - so be it. Go nuts.

But don't be angry when others decide they have more important things to do than join the fantasy.

Response to Sympthsical (Reply #65)

Sympthsical

(10,404 posts)
78. If reality feels mean, I don't know what to tell you
Wed Dec 18, 2024, 03:59 PM
Dec 18

I am of two minds on this. On the one hand, I dislike out-of-pocket conspiracy mongering without evidence presented, because I feel it makes our side look bad. Kooky. It makes it easy to tarnish and corrode credibility. That is why I feel an impulse to push back against it - I am protecting my political territory. I do want Democrats to win future elections, and I see these wild machinations as a material harm to that goal.

On the other hand, I cannot and have no desire to place gates across rabbit holes. There is an argument to be made it's better to let people disappear down them so that the rest of the garden may continue undisturbed. Which seems to be where this stuff currently lives. The Democratic Party is not entertaining the stuff in any serious or widespread way. So maybe it's better to give those so minded an occupation so as to less distract others from work.

And to that effect, you're right. It may be better that I say nothing.

Response to Sympthsical (Reply #78)

NJCher

(38,242 posts)
82. I think it would be nice if
Wed Dec 18, 2024, 06:00 PM
Dec 18

you bowed out and said nothing.

Here, for example:

On the one hand, I dislike out-of-pocket conspiracy mongering without evidence presented, because I feel it makes our side look bad. Kooky. It makes it easy to tarnish and corrode credibility. That is why I feel an impulse to push back against it - I am protecting my political territory. I do want Democrats to win future elections, and I see these wild machinations as a material harm to that goal.

Conspiracy mongering? Yummmm, delicious choice of connotative words. Problem is that all people are doing is looking at numbers that are odd, to say the very least. You're the one calling it conspiracy discussion. In fact the report itself gives numerous options for the strange figures that don't add up. When you write like this, it tells me you haven't even read the report.

Next up: "makes our side look bad." "Kooky." Yeah, really? Who's making a list and checking it twice for the next election? Republicans? Magats? Somehow I missed their evidence-based arguments on the previous considerations of Democrats.

You really think people are out there saying, "Ehhh, I'm not going to vote for some people who noodled around some questionable figures?" If anything, this is a farfetched argument for an electorate where only 60% of the people can muster up the energy to stop by the voting booth.

And if you're so concerned about "protecting my political territory" and "wild machinations," do tell us all about it when you took Democrats who expressed an interest in aliens to task. Show us your comments on what Hillary and Bill Clinton said. And Harry Reid. Oh, and let's not forget Obama, who also expressed an interest in this topic. If anomalous numbers gets you in a tizzy, that must have sent you into a full-on meltdown.

What other "kookiness" have you attacked?

Tan suits, maybe?

The fact that you said "I do want Democrats to win future elections" tells me everything. That goes without saying and the fact that you felt you needed to say that makes a statement.

Response to NJCher (Reply #82)

Sympthsical

(10,404 posts)
117. It's the chicken wire and charcoal fluid of statistics
Wed Dec 18, 2024, 09:50 PM
Dec 18

Spoonamore was caught fabricating by the entire internet on day one. Day one. No one's following someone like that down a rabbit hole unless they have a strong desire to believe because something necessitates it for them.

The numbers were manipulatively selected so they would look odd - not because there was inherent oddness.

It's a simple thing - prove it. The article in your OP says they have no evidence. They know they don't. They just have "odd" so people can "just ask questions."

That's how this all works. No evidence. Just questions. Now, please donate.

Everyone makes their choices. Mine is to demand evidence before belief. Otherwise, it's just faith. And faith-based thinking isn't my jam.

DET

(1,733 posts)
76. Agreed
Wed Dec 18, 2024, 03:47 PM
Dec 18

I find it particularly interesting that the posters who insist that ‘there is no evidence’ are the most dismissive of looking for evidence - like a malignant sociopathic rapist and convicted felon who tried to steal the last election and incited an insurrection would never engage in such scurrilous conduct. While the fate of our country hangs in the balance.

At this point, leaving aside the question of whether TSF stole the election, I just want someone - anyone - to stop this train wreck before it happens. He never should have been allowed to run in the first place. As far as I’m concerned, once that was allowed to happen - in violation of the constitution - all bets were off.

Response to DET (Reply #76)

keepthemhonestO

(458 posts)
105. I agree
Wed Dec 18, 2024, 08:11 PM
Dec 18

I've definitely noticed and had people following me like busy little bees to discourage And to a point it worked.

I knew these people were working away at this together and I'm glad we have something that is raising eyebrows finally.

They still have more to go but they are busting ass and using all their anxiety to actually do something and we'll plus they have the know-how to compile it.

MichMan

(13,562 posts)
64. Numbers they provide don't make any sense when compared with actual state results
Wed Dec 18, 2024, 01:49 PM
Dec 18

They claim

Arizona

Drop-off margin = 267,956

Margin of victory = 187,382

Drop-off is 80,574 votes more than the margin of victory


Here are the results from Arizona

President

Trump 1,770,242
Harris 1,582,860
Stein 18,319
Oliver 17,898

Total of all votes cast for president is 3,389,319

US Senate

Gallego 1,676,335
Lake 1,595,761
Quintana 75,868

Total of all votes cast for US Senate is 3,347,964

Number of what they call "drop off votes" for president is 41, 335

How in the hell did they come up with 267,856 ?


They apparently make a very spurious assumption that every voter is expected to vote straight ticket down the entire ballot. They somehow believe that everyone casting votes for Trump and didn't for Lake is proof that the vote totals were rigged. Since there is nothing to support the claim that voters should all cast votes that way, that discredits their entire argument.


https://www.bing.com/search?q=arizona+election+2024+results&gs_lcrp=EgRlZGdlKgcIARAAGOoCMgcIABAAGOoCMgcIARAAGOoCMgcIAhAAGOoCMgcIAxAAGOoCMgcIBBBFGMIDMgcIBRBFGMIDMgcIBhBFGMIDMgcIBxBFGMID0gEMNzU5NjA3NzFqMGo5qAIIsAIB&FORM=ANAB01&PC=U531

Sympthsical

(10,404 posts)
68. They cherry-picked to maximize suspicion
Wed Dec 18, 2024, 02:08 PM
Dec 18

And probably maximize donations.

I'm over it. There's no point arguing it, honestly. I admire the attempt, tho.

The fact the phrase "we have no evidence" is right there in the report says it all.

MichMan

(13,562 posts)
71. Sorry, I don't admire anyone who manipulates and misrepresents data to fit their agenda and rile up gullible people
Wed Dec 18, 2024, 02:12 PM
Dec 18

Sympthsical

(10,404 posts)
74. I meant I admire your attempt
Wed Dec 18, 2024, 02:28 PM
Dec 18

To point out how their numbers are being selectively attached to the premise.

The fact Spoonamore just made things up in the initial kick off of all this, got caught red-handed, and then just kept going should've been all anyone needed to know about this stuff.

SheltieLover

(60,304 posts)
101. Of course the election results were manipulated.
Wed Dec 18, 2024, 07:33 PM
Dec 18

For those who doubt this, please take a moment to recall all the many, many huge venues Kamala and TIm packed to the rafters while slobby sat back not even making an effort, as if to say "Fuck all you voters. Pootin and musk have got this for me."

JMO, obviously.

questionseverything

(10,299 posts)
111. I won't say they were obviously manipulated but
Wed Dec 18, 2024, 08:36 PM
Dec 18

There is evidence the posted results aren’t normal

And I am not convinced we have procedures in place to stop manipulation

What harm would a hand count do? That’s the only way to prove it and that is assuming a secure chain of custody

SheltieLover

(60,304 posts)
133. I'm definitely convinced
Thu Dec 19, 2024, 11:37 AM
Dec 19

Think of the way Harris and Walz packed every huge venue with many thousands outdoors watching on TV screens, while the slob sat on his fat ass obviously not even trying to reach voters and so few showing up at his very few performances, with many walking out early.

OK, so I'm sure it will be argued that not all who attend rallies vote, etc., but seriously????

I am thoroughly beyond disgusted that Dems have not raised a HUGE stink about this theft and DEMANDED HAND RECOUNTS.

But JMO.

Metaphorical

(2,346 posts)
122. Duck Typing
Wed Dec 18, 2024, 10:13 PM
Dec 18

In software development, there's a term called Duck Typing. If it looks like a duck and quacks like a duck, it's likely that it is in fact a duck.

Trump (and his handlers) learned the hard way that in a fair election he is going to lose. He eked out a win in 2016 mainly by gaming the system and taking advantage of the fact that Hillary Clinton both had a monumental amount of baggage and the GOP had a long ramp up time to smear her, and he still lost the popular vote. He clearly had a set of strategies for insuring that he would win in 2020, but didn't take into account the fact that the pandemic that he had clearly botched was underway, and that after he DID lose the electoral college that he wasn't able to frighten Congress into not certifying the results. He was convicted for fraud. He met in Montana in a middle night the rendezvous at an airport considerably off the beaten path. For all intents and purposes, he skated through the general election, doing and saying things that would have disqualified any other candidate for office. One of the world's richest men is suddenly his bosom buddy, and miraculously, despite all evidence to the contrary, he pulls off a seeming upset. His winning likely breathes new life into Russia's war on Ukraine, led by a man who has been conducting massive psyops against the US for decades now.

Do I believe that specific state elections were hacked? Yeah, I do. Once you go to a pure electronic system, any such system is hackable at any point, especially since social engineering is the easiest way to hack a system. All it would take would be a bribe to the right people coupled with a credible threat to one's family, something that Trump has become quite adept at. It's also worth noting that given the clear media support from most of the major media outlets, the decision to ensure that he won was made fairly early on.

I'm not saying anything here that hasn't been said before. but we, DU and the Democratic party itself, have to recognize that for all of the recriminations and soul searching about we did wrong, this election was stolen. The challenge is figuring out what needs to happen to make sure this doesn't happen again. It's too late for this cycle, but I don't think that passively accepting that this is the will of the people is wrong. What you're seeing in the stock market now is a good signal of that - I was figuring that we would see a sell-off early in 2025, but it may have arrived early, as people begin to realize just HOW badly hoodwinked we've been.

The other guys cheat. They lie. They mislead, and we have let them normalize this behavior so that it is no longer outrageous to most people. We need to shift the Overton window in the other direction, get people to recognize that THIS IS NOT NORMAL! and to start acting on that.

Response to Metaphorical (Reply #122)

love_katz

(2,871 posts)
128. Shitler kept insisting that the election was stolen from him.
Thu Dec 19, 2024, 12:34 AM
Dec 19

He did that in 2016 when he won. He went on quite loudly about it before the election even happened.
He did the same thing in 2020 when he lost and he incited the January 6th attempted coup.
In 2024 he again claimed loudly and endlessly that our elections are rigged and that it was stolen from him in 2020 and was being stolen from him again in 2024, even before election day had even happened.
I can't prove anything, but something sure feels off. It seems like Dems were maneuvered into defending the security of our elections, which put us in an awkward position to question the results when the results don't fit at all with the momentum of each campaign.
This election stinks like a fish market at low tide.
Piss Wig telling voters that he would fix it so they will never have to mess with that pesky voting, ever again, or that he had enough votes and didn't need people to worry about voting. Is that normal?
Putin saying on Russia Today that tRump had help in getting elected and now he needs to pay back those who helped him.
Given the fact that every accusation from Republicans is a confession, I don't think it is surprising at all that many of us suspect a taradiddle, that the results were manipulated.
I'm not saying that misogyny and racism, combined with gerrymandering, purging of voter rolls, sane washing by the Corporate owned McGreedia, outright illegal bribes to voters by the Muskrat, etc, ad nauseum couldn't have had the same results.
But, somehow, something seems off. Other people's mileage may differ.

Response to love_katz (Reply #128)

Response to love_katz (Reply #128)

Babajida

(75 posts)
129. What is disheartening
Thu Dec 19, 2024, 12:43 AM
Dec 19

is how little the democrats are fighting. Worse, how many are fighting vehemently against even considering this is a possibility. I agree with you, this quacks very much like a duck.

tritsofme

(18,711 posts)
134. What would you like Democrats to fight against? Reality?
Thu Dec 19, 2024, 11:39 AM
Dec 19

This is beyond silly.

Democrats just aren’t going to lie and manipulate their voters with baseless conspiracy theories like the Trump people did in 2020.

And people see that as a sign of weakness? Yikes.

Response to Babajida (Reply #129)

Latest Discussions»General Discussion»Smart Elections Report on...